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The Grade 2 $350,000 Lexus Raven Run Stakes on Saturday, Oct. 21 at Keeneland will showcase among the prime 3-year-old filly sprinters in North America. Six of the 9 entrants received their most up-to-date race, with 4 of these victories coming in stakes races. Alva Starr received on the highest degree when taking the Grade 2 Prioress Stakes final month and hopes to do the identical whereas working this seven-furlong distance for the primary time. Vahva received the Grade 3 Charles City Oaks on the distance of the Raven Run and hopes to duplicate that effort. Woman Radler pulled off the 23-1 upset within the Grade 3 Dogwood Stakes 4 weeks in the past on the similar distance and provides to the depth of rivalry. Apple Picker ships in from Maryland off a powerful 4 ½-length win within the Climate Vane Stakes, whereas Historic Peace cuts again in distance after a second of eight end within the Grade 3 Remington Park Oaks one month in the past. Dazzling Blue was no match for Alva Starr within the Prioress however previous to that completed second within the Grade 3 Victory Experience Stakes at 6 ½ furlongs. Nom de Plume was final seen successful a two-turn race on turf in August and tries stakes firm and filth for the primary time however could also be this good. Merely Acknowledged received the Penn Women Sprint in August and enters the race in search of her fifth straight win. Lily Poo rounds out the sphere, coming into the race off a pair of fifth-place finishes, the newest within the Charles City Oaks.
Prime Contenders:
Vahva could have the slightest edge over Alva Starr on this race as a result of her most up-to-date begin in late August successful the Charles City Oaks got here on the similar seven-furlong distance of the Raven Run Stakes. Not solely that, however the course configuration at Charles City is such that seven-furlong journey was round two-turns, which could be harder to navigate than one flip. The in the reduction of to at least one flip could assist Vahva to run higher, than she did within the Oaks, the place she stalked in third for the primary six furlongs, then got here out three paths extensive to win going away. That effort earned her a career-best 100 Equibase Velocity Determine, a pleasant enchancment off the 91 determine she earned just a little over one month earlier when third within the Victory Experience Stakes. Contemplating Vahva had been away from the races for 2 months earlier than the Victory Experience, her sample for extra enchancment is fairly apparent. It should even be famous that the 2022 Raven Run Winner (Caramel Swirl) used the Charles City Oaks as her last begin earlier than victory on this race.
Alva Starr has by no means completed worse than second in 5 races, successful three and inserting within the different two. Her final two efforts have been her most spectacular, first when successful the Dashing Magnificence Stakes in July with a career-best 106 determine then successful the Prioress Stakes by practically 9 lengths. Though the 103 determine within the Prioress was decrease than the 106 determine in her prior begin, Alva Starr was geared down within the last sixteenth of a mile so she may have run sooner. An fascinating reality about this filly is she is a full sister to Cilla, who received a variety of stakes and earned a half-million {dollars}, together with when third within the 2021 Raven Run following a win within the Prioress, for a similar coach (Brett Brinkman). If there’s one concern, it’s that each race Alva Starr has run has been at six furlongs, so this shall be her first try at an extended distance.
Honorable point out goes to 2 extra gifted fillies. The primary of the pair is Merely Acknowledged, as she’s received 4 in a row together with the Penn Women Sprint Stakes in August with a 95 determine. After that, Merely Acknowledged received on the all-weather floor at Presque Isle Downs, incomes a 92 determine. What’s fascinating to notice is that her coach, Todd Beattie, shipped in Taris to win this race in 2014 off an equivalent win at Presque Isle Downs at six furlongs. Woman Radler is the opposite horse who I really feel deserves honorable point out. She paid $48 to win when taking the Dogwood Stakes final month at this distance. She received two races in a row this summer season and final 12 months she ran very effectively to complete second at 30 to 1 within the Myrtlewood Stakes at Keeneland. The primary of her two wins this spring got here within the Goldfinch Stakes, during which she earned a career-best 96 determine. As a filly with 5 wins in 10 races, she has some high quality about her and might’t be discarded as a contender.
The remainder of the sphere, with their finest Equibase Velocity Figures, is Historic Peace (96), Apple Picker (92), Dazzling Blue (94), Lily Poo (90) and Nom de Plume (86).
Win Contenders:
Contenders for second or third:
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