Heading into the 2023 season, most followers would’ve anticipated the NL East to comprise a minimum of three reputable playoff contenders. Few, nevertheless, pegged that trio to incorporate the Braves, Phillies and … the Marlins. Typical knowledge stated that the Mets’ $350MM+ payroll, the Braves’ perennial excellence and the Phillies’ 2022 World Sequence look made them the groups to observe within the division. However, listed below are the Marlins, sitting 60-56 on Aug. 9 and tied with the Cubs for a share of the ultimate Wild Card spot within the Nationwide League.

A lot of that success has been attributable to Miami’s robust exhibiting in one-run video games. At 26-10 in such contests, the Marlins have been baseball’s greatest group by a large margin. Their .722 profitable share in one-run contests leads the Brewers (21-10, .677) and Orioles (20-11, .645) and is relatively comfortably one of the best within the recreation. Heck, as I used to be penning this, the Marlins received one other one-run recreation, because of some late heroics from deadline acquisition Josh Bell and the underrated Bryan De La Cruz.

There are specific traits that make a group more likely to compete and reach massive variety of intently contested video games. A lineup that struggles to attain runs in bulk and is closely reliant on station-to-station baseball — as if the case in Miami — is sure to play in numerous shut video games. That’s been an apt description of the Marlins to this point in 2023; they entered play Wednesday twenty sixth in MLB with 465 runs scored and twenty seventh with 106 dwelling runs.

A powerful bullpen that’s able to holding the too-often slender leads afforded to the pitching workers can also be a key think about mastering one-run victories. Once more, that’s been the case in Miami for a lot of the season. Whereas the Marlins shook up their bullpen previous to the deadline, swapping out Dylan Floro for Jorge Lopez (an trade of struggling change-of-scenery candidates) and buying and selling a pair of prospects for David Robertson, the Marlins have usually had a stable aid corps in 2023. Or relatively, they’ve had a powerful prime half of a top-heavy bullpen. Including Robertson to assist deepen the group makes the group higher, to make sure, however Miami was already had a powerful bullpen group thanks largely to a quartet of left-handers whom they acquired at nearly no value.

Chief amongst that group is hard-throwing 29-year-old Tanner Scott. Lengthy one of the vital touted arms within the Orioles’ farm system, Scott was traded to Miami alongside righty Cole Sulser simply earlier than Opening Day 2022. The O’s deserve loads of credit score for the group they’ve put collectively, however this swap might be one which Baltimore GM Mike Elias would love again. The Fish landed Scott and Sulser in a commerce that despatched a trio of low-level minor leaguers — Kevin Guerrero, Antonio Velez and Yaqui Rivera — to the Orioles. None of that trio ranks among the many Orioles’ prime 30 prospects at Baseball America, MLB.com or FanGraphs.

Sulser has already departed the Marlins group — the D-backs claimed him on waivers final November — however Scott has emerged as the most effective lefties within the recreation. His energy arsenal was at all times tantalizing, however Scott’s lack of command frequently proved irritating for the O’s. That continued into the 2022 season, his first in Miami, however the 2023 marketing campaign has been one other story. After logging a 4.31 ERA, 31.1% strikeout charge and ghastly 15.9% stroll charge final yr, Scott is now touting a 2.80 ERA, a 36.4% strikeout charge and a vastly improved 10% stroll charge. Sure, it’s nonetheless too many free passes, however he’s improved it because the season has gone on. Over his previous 32 frames, Scott has walked solely 7% of his opponents.

Scott entered play Wednesday with a mammoth 17.2% swinging-strike charge and 36.2% chase charge — and that’s earlier than he struck out the aspect in opposition to the Reds on this afternoon’s inning of labor. There are solely three pitchers in baseball who’ve thrown 50-plus innings and have a better swinging-strike charge. Scott isn’t working in low-leverage mop-up settings, both. He’s piled up 22 holds and a pair of saves, and solely 4 certified relievers prime him by way of win chance added (WPA). The Fish are paying him a discount $2.825MM this season and management him by way of the 2024 season.

Many golf equipment can be thrilled to easily have one high quality southpaw of this caliber, however the Marlins are deeper than any membership in MLB in terms of lefty relievers. Scott could be the largest identify of the bunch, however the Fish are swimming (sorry, sorry) in high quality southpaws. Andrew Nardi could be probably the most nameless member of the group, however he’s been nothing in need of excellent this season.

A former Sixteenth-round choose by Miami, Nardi had an inauspicious MLB debut in 2022, pitching 14 2/3 innings however permitting 16 runs in that point. Few followers checked out him and noticed a breakout candidate, however in 39 2/3 innings this yr, he’s sporting a 2.95 ERA, 33.1% strikeout charge and 6.9% stroll charge. He’s been restricted by a triceps damage this summer season however was reinstated from the IL earlier this month and is again working in a high-leverage capability. Since choosing up his first huge league save again on Might 7, he’s pitched to a 1.80 ERA with a 36-to-6 Okay/BB ratio in 25 innings. He’s grabbed eight holds and a pair of saves alongside the way in which — and each numbers can be larger had he not spent a month on the injured record in that span.

Nardi’s 14.3% swinging-strike charge is superb, and his 35% chase charge is even higher. Nearly nobody can sq. up the ball in opposition to the 24-year-old; he sits within the 99th percentile of massive league pitchers by way of common exit velocity and the 98th percentile in general hard-hit charge. Nardi doesn’t also have a yr of Main League service but, so the Marlins can management him all through the 2028 season, and he received’t even attain arbitration till after the 2025 marketing campaign.

There’s additionally 32-year-old Steven Okert to contemplate — a gem unearthed in minor league free company. The left-hander got here to Miami on a minor league deal within the 2020-21 offseason and, on the time, had simply 48 1/3 innings of 4.28 ERA ball below his belt — all coming from 2016-18 with the Giants. In three seasons with Miami, Okert has graduated from a generic depth signing to a stalwart member of a proficient aid corps. He’s logged 129 1/3 innings with a 2.85 ERA since relocating to South Florida, punching out 30% of his opponents in opposition to a ten.6% stroll charge.

Once more, the walks are a bit too excessive, nevertheless it must be famous that Okert has boosted his strikeout charge to a career-high 33.5% in 2023 whereas dropping his stroll charge to 9% — his lowest mark in three years with the Fish. His velocity has ticked up every season, and the Marlins have scrapped three of his 5 pitches, turning him solely right into a four-seam/slider reliever. Okert pitches extra within the center innings than Scott and Nardi, however he’s nonetheless picked up 10 holds. The outcomes are excellent, and he might be managed cheaply for 3 years past the present season. Not too shabby for somebody signed to a minor league deal three offseasons in the past.

Left-hander A.J. Puk could be probably the most recognizable identify of the bunch, because of each his lofty draft standing (No. 6 general in 2016) and his inclusion in a fairly high-profile commerce this offseason (sending former No. 4 general choose JJ Bleday again to Oakland). Puk’s 4.62 ERA is by far the least spectacular of the group, however the underlying numbers are much more spectacular. He’s fanned 30.9% of his opponents in opposition to only a 4.9% stroll charge whereas recording a swinging-strike charge simply shy of 15%. Puk had a sub-3.00 ERA himself in early June earlier than a tough patch that noticed him enable runs in six of 9 appearances. He’s since rebounded with 4 straight scoreless outings, whiffing 5 hitters with out issuing a stroll in 3 1/3 innings.

Puk has been hampered by a .337 common on balls in play and an abnormally low 63.1% strand charge, prompting metric like FIP (3.41) and SIERA (2.66) to forged a much more favorable gentle on the lefty than his earned run common does. Puk actually wasn’t flawless in serving because the Marlins’ major nearer — 15-for-21 in save alternatives — and that, coupled together with his tough stretch final month, may need nudged Miami to amass Robertson. That stated, lefties who common 96 mph don’t develop on bushes, and Puk’s mix of elite strikeout and stroll charges alerts higher days forward.

In truth, Marlins relievers as a complete are among the many greatest in baseball in terms of each piling up strikeouts and limiting free passes. Every of the 4 lefties profiled right here rank within the prime 10 of all certified relievers by way of differential between strikeout charge and stroll charge (i.e. Okay-BB%). The Marlins are sixth in all of baseball as a collective group in that class, and including Robertson for the ultimate two months of the season ought to assist them out.

There are many causes for the Marlins’ success this season. Luis Arraez’s surefire batting title, huge steps ahead from Jesus Luzardo and Braxton Garrett, a dominant debut season from Eury Perez and a rebound effort from Jorge Soler have all helped drive this unlikely playoff push. However heading into the season, few would’ve pegged the Marlins to obtain one of these output from their left-handed bullpen corps. Add in the truth that they got here to the group through a minor league deal, a Sixteenth-round choose, and trades sending out three marginal prospects and a former first-rounder who’s nonetheless struggling in Oakland — and the core of this bullpen is much more spectacular. They’ll all return for the 2024 season a minimum of, and with Robertson serving to lead the cost down the stretch in ’23, the Marlins will proceed to be harmful in tightly contested video games.