Cristian Javier had constructed a powerful postseason resume forward of Sport 7 of the ALCS. Throughout 12 reduction appearances and 4 begins, he had compiled a 2.08 ERA and seven.5% championship win likelihood added. His first three begins within the playoffs had been significantly spectacular; he held the Yankees scoreless on a single hit in final 12 months’s ALCS, was the beginning pitcher of the Astros’ mixed no-hitter within the World Sequence, and held the Twins to a single hit within the ALDS this 12 months. His 18 complete hits allowed and .123 opponent’s batting common had been by far the bottom amongst any pitcher with greater than 40 postseason innings pitched.

With such a powerful observe report, the Astros needed to really feel assured handing him the ball on Monday night time. However issues didn’t go in response to plan, as Javier lasted six batters and recorded only a single out, permitting three runs on 4 hits and a stroll, earlier than getting pulled. It was his worst postseason outing of his profession and a giant motive why Houston isn’t again within the World Sequence to defend its championship.

Earlier than I dive into the small print of his outing, I need to return and take a look at Javier’s season as a complete. After his breakout 2022, he signed a five-year extension through the offseason, however he stumbled to a 4.56 ERA and 4.58 FIP this previous season, together with his strikeout fee falling 10 factors from the 12 months prior.

The basis of his issues appeared to stem from his fastball. Javier is actually a two-pitch pitcher, together with his four-seamer making up almost 60% of his pitch combine, however he can get away with such a restricted repertoire as a result of his heater is merely excellent. He throws from a low three-quarters arm slot however is ready to generate an elite quantity of trip on the pitch; elevating a pitch with these traits is a surefire option to produce one of many flattest four-seamers in baseball.

The shifting bodily traits of his main pitch paint a reasonably clear image of the ebbs and flows of his success over the previous three seasons:

Javier’s breakout in 2022 was largely fueled by an added inch of induced vertical break on his fastball and a honed potential to find that pitch up within the zone. He’s at all times been in a position to get swings and misses with the pitch, however now he was additionally lacking barrels and inducing numerous weak fly balls and popups. After growing his workload by virtually 50 innings and setting a career-high in innings pitched, he entered this season throwing his fastball greater than a mile per hour slower than final 12 months. That lack of velocity mixed with a barely much less environment friendly spin profile led to a dip in induced vertical break. His launch level was marginally increased as effectively, which steepened the pitch’s trajectory because it crossed the plate.

Javier managed to appropriate a lot of these small points through the second half of the season, bettering the trip and decreasing his launch level. His last three regular-season begins had been significantly good: 5 runs allowed throughout 15.2 innings on simply 9 hits with 21 strikeouts. And as soon as the postseason began, his fastball appeared higher than it had all season lengthy. The adrenaline of October baseball helped him improve his velocity again as much as the place it was final 12 months, and his trip was higher than ever. His launch level was again up a bit, which might have affected his vertical method angle, even with the improved velocity and trip on the pitch; sadly, I don’t have that knowledge for his postseason begins. However regaining the elite form on his heater looks like the large motive why he was so good throughout his first two postseason begins this 12 months.

From a outcomes standpoint, it’s clear that the success of his fastball is basically depending on the quantity of induced vertical break he’s imparting on the pitch, one thing borne out within the knowledge:

When he’s producing greater than 19 inches of trip, his fastball is nigh unhittable. When it dips under that threshold, batters have a a lot simpler time making contact with authority.

With the form of his fastball trying higher than ever and his velocity restored, you’d count on that the underlying pitch outcomes would have been excellent within the postseason. That wasn’t essentially the case:

It’s an admittedly small pattern — simply 115 fastballs in three begins — however he didn’t see a dramatic change in fortunes together with his four-seamer regardless of the improved bodily traits. His whiff fee dropped a bit, his wOBA allowed barely budged, and his anticipated wOBA shot up.

Let’s get again to Javier’s Sport 7 begin. He threw simply 15 fastballs in that outing on Monday, they usually had the very best common induced vertical break of any single begin in his profession, a whopping 21.1 inches of trip. You’d assume that with that form of form to his fastball, he would have carved via the Rangers’ lineup, however Texas’ hitters had been as much as the problem and chased him early. Right here’s how Martín Maldonado described Javier’s begin in a postgame interview:

“His [velocity] was up. His command wasn’t nice. His off-speed pitches weren’t sharp. I really feel like that they had an excellent recreation plan towards him. I really feel like he was slightly amped up. … I assumed he tried to do an excessive amount of.”

Texas’ recreation plan was evident from the primary swing of the sport by Marcus Semien.

In a 1–0 rely, Semien swings over a excessive fastball and kilos it into the bottom; that was the one out Javier recorded that night time. The Rangers knew to count on a flat fastball up within the zone and tailor-made their swings to get on high of the pitch. The consequence was 4 balls in play launched with a mean exit velocity of 99.3 mph.

Right here’s Javier’s pitch chart from that night time:

Maldonado’s evaluation appears spot on; Javier letting his fastball fly helped him add a little bit of velocity but additionally led to a bunch of misses up above the zone. Nonetheless, the pitches that had been put into play weren’t that horrible. The fastball that Corey Seager launched for a house run might have been barely increased within the zone, but it surely’s nonetheless in a location that will have generated loads of whiffs all through Javier’s profession; it was not at all a mistake pitch. And with the quantity of trip he was getting on his fastball, you’d count on to see much more swings below his heater. It’s a credit score to Rangers hitters for executing their recreation plan to perfection towards a pitcher throwing what may need been his finest stuff of the season.