![The Bo Naylor Period Begins in Cleveland The Bo Naylor Period Begins in Cleveland](https://bunny-sports.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/USATSI_20394980.jpg)
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The Guardians made a catching change heading into the weekend, designating veteran Mike Zunino for project and calling up prospect Bo Naylor from Triple-A Columbus to take his place. Zunino, signed this previous offseason, hit .177/.271/.306 in 42 video games in Cleveland, “good” sufficient for a 63 wRC+ and -0.1 WAR. Naylor, in his second go of Triple-A, is having a season much like final one, hitting .254/.393/.498 with 13 homers in 60 video games, giving him a wRC+ of 122.
Signed to a one-year, $6 million contract this previous offseason, Zunino was by no means meant to be a long-term choice for the Guardians. He’s at all times been a maddingly inconsistent hitter from yr to yr, oscillating between .850-OPS and .550-OPS seasons, and he missed almost half of 2022 as a result of thoracic outlet syndrome. However the hope was that he’d be ok to carry down the fort lengthy sufficient for Naylor to get extra time behind the plate within the minors.
Zunino’s offense didn’t initially appear all that essential to his continued employment. During the last decade, Cleveland has been more than pleased to make use of catchers who wrestle with the bat, as long as mentioned catcher was a minimum of greater than competent defensively. The final time Cleveland’s backstops mixed for a wRC+ of even 90 was 2014, through the early levels of the Yan Gomes residency. This was a famous shift from the earlier decade, when the group took the alternative strategy, with defensively challenged catchers like Victor Martinez and Carlos Santana making their cash with their bats. Regardless of the absymal offense, if Zunino’s protection this season had been on the ranges of his time with the Mariners, Naylor would nonetheless be hanging out within the state capital.
The choice being so less-than-agonizing is helped by the truth that Cleveland actually wants offense. And after I say want, I imply want, not within the sense that I actually need to have tacos for lunch. The group has had brutal offenses in its historical past — like, crew within the first act of an inspirational sports activities film (earlier than they discover the star-quality ringer and study in regards to the superior energy of teamwork and friendship) ranges of unhealthy. Whereas the Guardians’ wRC+ of 87 has been “overwhelmed” on 10 different events, solely as soon as within the final half-century did the franchise end a season with a worse quantity, in 1991. Cleveland additionally has a shot at ending underneath 100 homers for the yr, one thing no crew has performed in a full season because the 2011 Padres, who took almost a decade to put up their subsequent profitable season.
Upgrading at catcher was principally the Guardians’ quickest path to including offense shortly. A number of different gamers have been additionally been abysmal offensively — Amed Rosario, Josh Bell, and Myles Straw come to thoughts — however none of their replacements have the speedy upside that Naylor does. Zack Collins was not going to be a probable improve on Bell, and Columbus’ outfielders have mirrored the dad or mum membership’s long-term issues, with each beginning nook outfielders beneath a .700 OPS (the Worldwide League as a complete has a .797 OPS) and a non-prospect middle fielder in Chris Curler.
So, what can the Guardians anticipate to get from Naylor? Prompt stardom is unlikely to be within the playing cards; his bat isn’t that loopy for a Triple-A hitter in 2023, and he’s struggling to throw out runners, which issues extra now than it has in a very long time in baseball. ZiPS interprets his 2023 minor league line at .229/.342/.384 with 12 homers, which doesn’t precisely give the Guardians their very own model of Adley Rutschman, however a .726 OPS would principally lap a lot of the crew, behind solely José Ramírez and Bo’s brother Josh Naylor.
However although the primary half of 2023 hasn’t drastically modified the general outlook for Naylor, it’s a minimum of fortified the probability that his 2022 breakout was for actual. Within the span of a single season, he went from our no. 28 prospect in Cleveland to no. 1. Whereas there’s at all times the pure suspicion when a prime prospects begins a season within the minor leagues, I feel that is extra a case during which Cleveland legitimately needed to see consolidation of Naylor’s 2022 features, as $6 million to monkey along with his service clock would have been a reasonably wealthy determine to go Snidely Whiplash.
ZiPS Projection – Bo Naylor
Yr | BA | OBP | SLG | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | OPS+ | DR | WAR |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 | .228 | .322 | .400 | 448 | 66 | 102 | 20 | 3 | 17 | 63 | 59 | 138 | 7 | 99 | 2 | 2.4 |
2025 | .234 | .329 | .408 | 448 | 67 | 105 | 21 | 3 | 17 | 65 | 60 | 133 | 6 | 103 | 2 | 2.7 |
2026 | .238 | .333 | .414 | 442 | 67 | 105 | 21 | 3 | 17 | 65 | 60 | 126 | 6 | 106 | 3 | 2.8 |
2027 | .239 | .335 | .418 | 435 | 66 | 104 | 21 | 3 | 17 | 64 | 59 | 120 | 6 | 107 | 3 | 2.9 |
2028 | .239 | .335 | .416 | 423 | 65 | 101 | 20 | 2 | 17 | 62 | 58 | 115 | 5 | 107 | 3 | 2.8 |
2029 | .238 | .333 | .412 | 408 | 62 | 97 | 19 | 2 | 16 | 59 | 56 | 110 | 4 | 105 | 2 | 2.6 |
ZiPS 2024 Projection Percentiles – Bo Naylor
Percentile | 2B | HR | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS+ | WAR |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
95% | 30 | 27 | .282 | .376 | .526 | 142 | 4.9 |
90% | 28 | 25 | .267 | .363 | .487 | 130 | 4.4 |
80% | 26 | 22 | .255 | .348 | .459 | 121 | 3.7 |
70% | 23 | 20 | .245 | .338 | .434 | 113 | 3.3 |
60% | 22 | 19 | .235 | .330 | .417 | 106 | 2.8 |
50% | 20 | 17 | .228 | .322 | .400 | 99 | 2.4 |
40% | 19 | 16 | .219 | .314 | .382 | 93 | 2.0 |
30% | 17 | 15 | .210 | .304 | .365 | 86 | 1.6 |
20% | 16 | 13 | .197 | .294 | .344 | 78 | 1.1 |
10% | 14 | 11 | .178 | .276 | .317 | 67 | 0.3 |
5% | 12 | 10 | .169 | .265 | .293 | 57 | -0.2 |
The long-term projections, as famous above, don’t predict Naylor changing into a star, although he could snag an All-Star look or two in his up years. What they do inform is a story of stability. Gomes was the crew’s final catcher to place up even consecutive one-win seasons, and simply being ok is an especially constructive trait to have within the eternally moribund AL Central, a division that’s, to pilfer and butcher a quote about Lord Byron, “mad, unhealthy, and dispiriting to know.”
Bo Naylor’s MLB profession hasn’t gotten off to a booming begin, as he’s now 0-for-14 towards main leaguers (together with 5 video games on the finish of 2022). However issues will get higher for him and, finally, the Guardians. In a divisional race that should be tight in September and the place no crew has wild card hopes, being a bit higher could also be ok.
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