By Noel Michaels

Santa Anita Park’s beginning gate – Picture courtesy of Santa Anita

The climate might play a major function on Large ‘Cap Day at Santa Anita, with heavy rains anticipated Friday and a 40% probability of showers on the large day Saturday – an 11-race card that includes three Grade 1s — the Santa Anita Handicap, the Kilroe Mile and the Beholder Mile plus the San Felipe Stakes (G2) for 3-year-olds.

In preparation for the rain, Santa Anita canceled Friday’s card and moved it to Monday. It’s a transfer to maintain the observe sealed and hope for a quick observe on Saturday. They’ll undoubtedly name it quick, whether or not or not it truly is, as a result of actually there shall be moisture in the principle observe, and it’ll profit horseplayers to issue that into their handicapping as a lot as attainable.

Moreover, the turf course is anticipated to be some extent of less-than-firm.

Right here’s a more in-depth have a look at handicapping Saturday’s high stakes at Santa Anita:

$400,000 San Felipe Stakes (G2), 1 1/16 miles, 3-year-olds (race 6)

Some of the anticipated races on the cardboard is that this Derby-points qualifier providing 50-20-10-5 factors to the primary 4 finishers. The race drew a discipline of seven.

The standout seems to be Richard Mandella-trained #6 Forbidden Kingdom, who creamed the likes of Pinehurst final trip in his 3-year-old debut within the San Vicente. Forbidden Kingdom was additionally second within the Bob Hope final fall behind Messier, who got here again and received Robert B. Lewis by 15 lengths. This shall be Forbidden Kingdom’s first outing past 7 furlongs, but when the distances ultimately catch as much as this horse, will probably be additional on down the road and never within the San Felipe the place he’s the horse to beat. Probably the most notable challenger for the (chalky) exacta bins shall be #5 Doppelganger, educated by Bob Baffert, however Doppelganger might want to make up 2 ¾ lengths on Forbidden Kingdom, which was his margin of defeat within the San Vicente.

The Play: Guess the favorites in a excessive likelihood however low payoff exacta field with #5 Doppelganger and #6 Forbidden Kingdom or scrap the field and simply play the exacta a technique together with your desire on high.

$600,000 Santa Anita Handicap (G1), 1 1/4 miles, 4-year-olds & up (race 11)

Stilleto Boy wins the Iowa Derby at Prairie Meadows- Picture Courtesy of Coady Images

The Large ‘Cap drew an eight-horse discipline, however as within the San Felipe, the race looks as if it is going to come all the way down to a battle between the 2 favorites, #6 Categorical Practice educated by John Shirreffs and #8 Stilleto Boy educated by Ed Moger, Jr. Categorical Practice appeared on his method to victory in final 12 months’s version with a giant lead within the stretch however then settled for second when caught by Idol within the late phases.

Whereas there isn’t a doubting Categorical Practice’s means because the horse enters the race off a giant victory in his second straight working of the San Pasqual (G2), there nonetheless is not less than a query mark hanging of his means to get the 1 ¼-mile distance. Stilleto Boy is unproven at 1 ¼ miles as nicely, however he’s untested apart from his loss within the Breeders’ Cup Basic (G1).

Whereas Stilleto Boy is winless in a number of months, he has continued to enhance versus top-rung competitors, simply as he did final trip when third within the Pegasus World Cup (G1). His possibilities on this spot look fully extra reasonable.

There doesn’t seem like many good options to those two. If you’re in search of a greater value, maybe the choices are the Bob Baffert-trained #1 Spielberg, who has proven flashes of with the ability to put all of it collectively at factors in his profession, or #3 Warrant, who’s the wild card within the discipline for Eclipse Award-winning coach Brad Cox. Warrant was profitable in an under-the-radar sophomore marketing campaign final season with victories in races such because the Oklahoma Derby and the Texas Derby, which was received over a sloppy observe.

The Play: Guess #8 Stilleto Boy to win and play the chalky exacta field with him and #6 Categorical Practice.

$500,000 Frank E. Kilroe Mile (G1) 1 mile turf, 4-year-olds & up (race 10)

This race options the day’s greatest wager, Brendan Walsh-trained #8 Area Traveller, who ought to get revenge on this in any other case huge open-looking 12-horse discipline. Area Traveller exits an unlucky loss within the Pegasus Turf (G1) when he was bottled up in visitors when loaded and stuffed with run, then tried to come back up the within within the stretch however needed to be ridden with warning and steadied on the rail of the turf chute and finally settled for third in a race he ought to have received. Euro all-star rider Jamie Spencer, who was not an all-star within the Pegasus Turf, is again aboard for the mount, and Area Traveller ought to roll versus this discipline given an honest journey.

The opposite high contenders within the Kilroe embrace the highest finishers from final month’s Thunder Highway, #4 Rely Once more educated by Phil D’Amato and #2 Unconscious educated by Richard Mandella, and New York shipper #7 Inform Your Daddy who attracts Johnny Velazquez aboard for coach Tom Morley. In his 2021 marketing campaign, Inform Your Daddy was second within the Keeneland Turf Mile and received the Bernard Baruch at Saratoga over a yielding turf, which is notable as a result of comparable turf circumstances are anticipated Saturday.

The Play: Guess #8 Area Traveller to win and field him in exactas with #7 Inform Your Daddy. Play trifectas with Area Traveller keyed on high with three horses within the beneath spots – together with #7 Inform Your Daddy and #2 Unconscious and #4 Rely Once more.

$500,000 Beholder Mile (G1), 1 mile, 4 advert up fillies and mares (race 9)

As Time Goes By – Picture Courtesy of Benoit Picture

A discipline of six was drawn, however there are some heavy-hitters within the combine together with #3 As Time Goes By educated by Bob Baffert, #5 Miss Bigly educated by Phil D’Amato, and #6 Envoutante, educated by Kenny McPeek. Envoutante saved one of the best firm all through her 4-year-old marketing campaign final 12 months together with her losses coming to the likes of divisional leaders Letruska and Shedaresthedevil.

When Envoutante stepped out away from the large names, she usually got here out on high as she did within the Shawnee at Churchill Downs, and extra not too long ago and importantly within the Fall Metropolis at Churchill again in November over a sloppy observe. If there’s moisture within the observe Saturday, she’s going to deal with it. Miss Bigly received the Bayakoa final trip at Oaklawn, and As Time Goes By exits again to again wins in Los Alamitos’s model of the Bayakoa and in January’s La Canada at Santa Anita.

The Play: Field the exactas and trifectas with #3 As Time Goes By, #5 Miss Bigly, and #6 Envoutante. If the payoffs are too low and also you don’t wish to field it, give desire to Envoutante on high.

Undercard Highlights

Within the San Carlos, Bob Baffert trains two of the principals, #4 Cezanne and #6 Eight Rings, however the edge goes to the Craig Lewis-trained California-bred #1 Brickyard Experience who’s in career-best type popping out of back-to-back state-bred stakes wins with sturdy pace figures. He owns eight profession wins at Santa Anita from 11 outings. Search for some worth within the race by hooking up Brickyard Experience within the exacta bins with up-and-comer #3 Canadian Pleasure, educated by Peter Eurton.

Within the Buena Vista, #5 Leggs Galore is a flexible pace horse with the power to win from 5 furlongs as much as the mile distance. She is a Santa Anita horse for the course for coach Phil D’Amato with 5 wins from seven lifetime begins over this turf course. Play her with #11 Mucho Uncommon, who was runner-up on this race final 12 months.

Noel Michaels has been concerned in lots of features of thoroughbred racing for greater than twenty years, as a Breeders’ Cup-winning proprietor and as a author, creator, handicapper, editor, supervisor and promoter of the game for a variety of firms together with Every day Racing Kind and Nassau County Off-Observe Betting.

He is also thought to be the main supply of reports and knowledge for handicapping tournaments and the creator of the “Handicapping Contest Handbook: A Horseplayer’s Information to Handicapping Tournaments”, which made his title nearly synonymous with the increasingly-popular match scene.

Along with contributing to US Racing, he’s additionally an analyst on the Arlington Park broadcast workforce.