(Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports activities)

Minnesota Vikings 

Win the NFC North +290

Fabian Sommer, The Hammer: Everybody and their mother-in-law understood how fraudulent the 13-win Vikings staff was final season. However when divisional odds, there appears to be an overcorrection. For my part, the distinction in pricing between the Lions and Vikings is just too steep. I anticipate Minnesota to be higher offensively than final yr — it’s Yr 2 for Kirk Cousins in Kevin O’Connell’s offense, TJ Hockenson received a full offseason with stated unit and so they have a strong offensive line with a top-five deal with tandem in Christian Darrisaw and Brian O’Neill. Add to it the truth that they’re changing Adam Thielen with first-round choose Jordan Addison and Dalvin Cook dinner ranked thirty fourth out of 35 qualifying operating backs in RYOE (speeding yards over expectation) final season.

On protection, they’ll fully change the image with new DC Brian Flores. On paper, they don’t have the our bodies to run that scheme with a lot success in Yr 1, however that aggressiveness will result in some well-timed variance and there’s additionally not an excessive amount of room to say no from rating twenty seventh in defensive DVOA. They gained’t win 13 video games this season, however going 9-8 ought to put them within the combine to win the NFC North once more.

UNDER 8.5 wins

Aaron Schatz, Chief Analytics Officer, FTNNetwork: All of the analytics individuals have harped on this, however Minnesota had an insanely fortunate season final yr, together with going 11-0 in one-score video games. All of the superior stats had them as a mean or below-average staff, however we could have had them decrease than anybody. They had been twenty seventh in DVOA final yr! Then on prime of that, the Vikings misplaced loads of expertise this offseason, together with Thielen, Za’Darius Smith and Patrick Peterson. Their offense must be common, however their protection doesn’t look good in any respect.

UNDER 8.5 wins (+115 at Westgate) or UNDER Alternate Complete 9.5 (-180 at Circa)

Scott Kellen, skilled bettor: The Vikings went 13-4 final yr so going underneath 8.5 wins (or 9.5 alternate whole) could look like a silly wager. However there are numerous alerts that what occurred final yr will result in a significant regression in 2023. Minnesota’s Pythagorean quantity from 2022, the Vikings set an all-time document for overachieving by 4.6 wins (the most important quantity I’ve seen since I began monitoring this method in 2007). Which means their document ought to have been 8.4 wins and eight.6 losses.

Since 2007, groups that overachieved by not less than two wins gained not less than three fewer video games than the earlier season 66% of the time. The Vikings had been additionally 9-0 in video games determined by 7 factors or much less. Since 2015, groups that gained not less than 4 extra video games than they misplaced in shut video games win 3-4 video games fewer the next season. The Vikings additionally benefited from the ninth-easiest schedule in 2022; I’ve them with the seventh-toughest schedule in 2023. Minnesota was additionally the fifth extra lucky staff in accidents in 2022. Mix all of the historical past for regression together with a weaker defensive position and secondary, good harm luck in 2022 and Minnesota seems to be to be an 8-or-9 win staff at greatest this season.

Detroit Lions

Win NFC North +145

Jason Logan, Covers: If the offseason odds are any indication, the Lions are able to make the leap to the highest of the division in 2022. The season win whole and look-ahead strains concur with the NFC North futures, putting in Detroit as the favourite.

Right here’s a loopy stat for long-time Lions suffers: Detroit is a favourite in all however one in every of its six divisional video games this season, catching +1 at Minnesota in Week 16.

It’s a down yr for the division and there’s loads of wiggle room for the Lions, who could not want 10 wins to assert their first division crown since 1993.

Inexperienced Bay Packers

OVER 7.5 wins, win the NFC North +400

ClevTA, ClevAnalytics: With a QB like Jordan Love being such an unknown, there are long-tail outcomes on each ends. If he’s a top-15 QB, this must be one of many contenders within the division on the power of the remainder of the roster. That’s why I just like the guess to win the division. Love has the first-round pedigree, he’s a very good athlete and he will get a full offseason in Matt LaFleur’s system. The offense goes to be catered to serving to him succeed. Christian Watson has an opportunity to be actually good, and the Packers have two good operating backs. I feel they’ll play extra two-tight finish units after drafting Luke Musgrave. There are query marks at WR, however loads of upside. The offensive line is a top-10 unit.

Defensively, they underachieved final yr. The cross protection held up towards a very powerful schedule of cross offenses, whereas the run protection was horrible. I’ll take a foul run D vs. a foul cross D in immediately’s NFL.

Lastly, the division isn’t very tough. Love is going through the simplest schedule of opposing cross defenses (from final yr’s stats) and lots of dangerous pass-rush groups. Inexperienced Bay faces some warm-weather groups late within the yr at Lambeau as nicely.

Win NFC North +400

Eric Keen, SumerSports: Aaron Rodgers is an excellent artist, however his greatest years had been when he coloured between the strains. LaFleur is an efficient sufficient offensive coordinator to get some performs that may assist Love succeed.

We’re at all times a yr early on believing a protection will probably be good, however I feel the Packers D ought to fairly good this yr. Quay Walker and Devonte Wyatt barely performed final season, however in 2021, they’d All-Professional seasons from Devondre Campbell and Rasual Douglas. They regressed a bit of bit. Jaire Alexander might be a top-five CB as nicely.

Win NFC at 35-1

Andy Molitor: At present the Bears, Falcons and New York Giants are all sitting with decrease odds to symbolize the NFC within the Tremendous Bowl this yr.  Outdoors of Love’s inexperience, the one actual difficulty with this staff is probably going one other yr of an underperforming protection underneath Joe Barry.  In immediately’s NFL, I’m a lot much less frightened about that facet of the ball and actually suppose there’s some wild upside to this Packers offense.  The whole lot I’ve seen on tape from Love in camp, scrimmages and preseason has handed the sniff take a look at and the way in which that I’ve seen them implementing Musgrave and Watson has me very excited to see this all unleashed within the common season.  Many are viewing the youth of the talent place gamers as a unfavourable, however I’ll gladly take the worth that this type of market sentiment is creating with an skilled playoff coach and an important duo of operating backs to fall again on.

Chicago Bears

UNDER 7.5 wins

Fabian Sommer: Will probably be a tall job for this staff to win eight or extra video games a season faraway from holding the No. 1 total choose. There are lots of people very enthusiastic about this Bears squad, anticipating a significant third-year leap from Justin Fields after getting a brand new toy in DJ Moore. There are even comparisons to Josh Allen’s breakout. Not that Allen wasn’t a loopy outlier to start with, however he was additionally considerably higher at passing the ball in his second yr than Justin Fields was, as you may see right here:

Josh Allen vs Justin Fields as passers of their 2nd seasons:

DVOA:

JF: -34.5%
JA: -11.8%

EPA/DB (non-scrambles):

JF: -0.135
JA: 0.003

PFF grade:

JF: 54.4
JA: 61.4

I get why individuals need to evaluate the 2 conditions, however these are totally different head begins.

— Fabian Sommer (@suuma810) July 17, 2023

These are two fully totally different head begins. Fields would wish to make a leap as a passer to even get to Allen’s second yr. There’s zero proof as of now that Fields might be a mean passing quarterback on this league. We merely have to see it first.

Chicago’s protection was the worst within the league final season and the Bears didn’t inject an excessive amount of starting-caliber expertise outdoors of linebacker. Their cross rush ranked dead-last by a mile in stress charge on true passing downs in keeping with FTN final yr, and their greatest hope for a leap is Yannick Ngakoue (points towards the run and on his sixth staff at 28 years outdated).

UNDER 7.5 wins

Schatz: It’s exhausting to seek out eight wins on the Bears’ schedule. Due to his unbelievable highlights, most followers don’t perceive simply how dangerous a passer Fields has been in his first two seasons. He’s positive to enhance this yr, however simply how a lot can he enhance? It’s not possible that he’ll enhance sufficient to be an above-average passer. Additionally, the protection may be very dangerous.

UNDER 7.5 wins

Randy McKay: I don’t see the soar with this staff, particularly with their O-line hassle. Fields is a troublesome QB, and we’ll see what he does with some first rate expertise on offense. Khalil Herbert again at RB will assist. We’ll see this season if Matt Eberfleus is a good coach. Buying and selling away Roquan Smith was an odd transfer through the season.