Jonathan Taylor has established himself as probably the greatest operating backs within the league, particularly when he’s wholesome. He has had an amazing affect on the Colts’ offense. He’s due for a contract subsequent offseason and the query will turn out to be how a lot is he price, how a lot he may get and is he even price signing?

Contracts of Associated Gamers

I selected the next three gamers since each are had been across the similar age after they signed their offers and had comparable ranges of excessive manufacturing at their peaks.

Joe Mixon — 4 years, 48M with 10M Assured (20.8%) — Signed in 2020

Aaron Jones — 4 years, 48M with 13MM Assured (27%) (Earlier than contract was reworked) — Signed in 2021

Nick Chubb — 3 years, 36.6M with 20M Assured (54.6%) — Signed in 2022

If we account for inflation, the common of these offers in 2023 {dollars} can be:

4 years, 55.3M with 18.8M Assured (34%)

Contract Projection

So whereas the the common above would point out he can be making near 14M a 12 months, we’re seeing a development within the NFL of operating backs not with the ability to signal for his or her market worth. If that’s thought-about, on prime of the decline in worth amongst prime operating backs, then I consider his contract projection ought to look one thing like:

4 Years, 45.5M with 17M Assured (37%)

The highest operating backs within the sport are struggling to recover from 13M a 12 months. Because it stands, solely two operating backs within the NFL make greater than 12.5M a 12 months: Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara. The Kamara deal has scared a variety of groups from allotting large contracts to operating backs and McCaffrey is a unicorn who does all the pieces on the highest degree. So whereas inflation would point out that Taylor needs to be making greater than 11.4M per 12 months, the truth is the market is doing all the pieces however rising.

Ought to the Colts Lengthen Him?

I’ve written a couple of instances previously concerning the operating again wall and to me it’s very actual. If we use 3300 complete profession school and NFL touches because the magic quantity, as written out in my article replace final summer time, then Taylor ought to have round 4 to five years left of fine play in him. Additionally seen within the article was the common age of decline being round 29 years outdated. Taylor is presently 24 (born January 1999), so a 4 12 months deal would permit the Colts to get the great model of Taylor in the course of the size of his contract. When it comes to giving a deal that avoids the dreaded wall, the Colts have a great timeframe with Taylor and may give him a 4 12 months deal with out having to fret.

The following query, which can be much more vital, and it’s the one which many groups are asking is: can a participant price a fraction of the price do a lot of the similar job as Taylor? That’s the place it will get difficult. Some gamers within the league have distinctive skillsets, akin to Christian McCaffrey being an unbelievable throughout participant who has an affect on virtually each play, or Derrick Henry (prime model) who could possibly be fed the ball 30 instances a sport, ship a pounding run after run and nonetheless ship as many large runs as anybody. Does Jonathan Taylor have a novel skillset? Whereas he is an effective receiver, he’s not within the prime 20 for receiving yards per sport or receptions per sport during the last 3 seasons. Amongst operating backs with a minimum of 200 carries during the last 2 seasons, Taylor ranks fifth when it comes to yards per carry and 2nd when it comes to yards per sport. That is the place we see his worth shine.

The query from that is how a lot is 0.1 yards per carry price? For instance, if the Colts had been to switch Taylor with a operating again who averages 1 yard much less per carry, however save 10M per season, would that be price it in the long term? It’s a query I’ll reply in an article popping out within the subsequent week or so.

For now, I’m going to provide an all over reply. If the Colts had been to increase Taylor, it shouldn’t be for greater than the projected contract and even then, I personally received’t really feel too good about that. Taylor is an excellent operating again, however we’ve come to see that operating again is the least vital place in an NFL offense and they’re simply replaceable as proven by many examples over the previous few years (Pollard changing Elliott, Herbert changing Montgomery, Pacheco changing Edwards-Helaire, Perine changing Mixon). If the Colts discover success with Taylor this season as one half of a dynamic duo with Anthony Richardson (and to me his re-signing could be very a lot depending on that), then re-signing him on the worth above isn’t too unhealthy. In the event that they re-sign him above that worth, it should hinder the Colts’ wage during the contract and I’ll hate it. In the event that they had been to commerce him or let him stroll, it wouldn’t trouble me within the slightest. A whole lot of issues can occur with Jonathan Taylor, so it is going to be enjoyable to see the way it all performs out.