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Half 2 of RACER’s mid-season IndyCar reflections opens with essentially the most dominant group within the collection and follows with a number of groups who don’t have any hope of catching them however might contribute one or two drivers to fill a few of its upcoming vacancies in 2024.
CHIP GANASSI RACING
Marcus Ericsson, No. 8 Honda, fourth in Drivers’ Standings (-122 factors to Palou)
Scott Dixon, No. 9 Honda, second in Drivers’ Standings (-110 factors)
Alex Palou, No. 10, first in Drivers’ Standings (377 factors)
Marcus Armstrong/Takuma Sato, No. 11 Honda, seventeenth/twenty ninth in Drivers’ Standings (-247 factors/-340 factors)
Phillip Abbott/Motorsport Pictures
Alex Palou by no means scared his rivals. Not like this.
The genial Spaniard has been supremely quick at instances since he landed right here in 2020, however till not too long ago, he was strictly seen by his rivals as a tactician, a point-scoring phenom who floated just under the fearsome and uncatchable varieties like Pato O’Ward and Josef Newgarden when all goes their means.
After which, in a half season of racing, Palou determined to double his profession IndyCar win complete by turning 4 into eight whereas additionally rocketing to pole on the Indy 500. The final time 4 wins had been taken within the opening 9 races, it was in his rookie 12 months whereas driving for Dale Coyne as future teammate Scott Dixon claimed 4 victories and went on to guide the championship from begin to end. Dixon didn’t win once more in 2020, however he didn’t have to as high quality finishes stored the title out of attain from Newgarden.
Palou’s already received the 4 wins and has but to complete worse than eighth, and if he can hold the No. 10 Honda off the partitions for almost all of the eight races left to run, there received’t be a urgent have to earn extra wins, which is frightening. And Palou is not at all prepared to begin coasting, so we are able to count on to listen to him discuss doing nothing totally different, maintaining his head down, and delivering extra podiums. All whereas doing every little thing in his energy to keep away from clashes and speak to.
He’s confirmed he can construct a gaudy championship lead; now it’s time to show he can cost to the end line and add to it.
Dixon’s the closest contender to Palou for the title, though the time period ‘shut’ is relative since he’s 110 factors again after 9 races. After 9 races in 2022, the championship chief — Marcus Ericsson — was a mere 20 factors forward of eventual champion Will Energy. With that 20-point marker in thoughts, the truth that Palou has amassed greater than 5 instances as many factors over second place at this stage of the season is simply ridiculous.
As for Dixon, he’s nonetheless looking for his first win of the season and the large haul of 50-53 factors it will ship. Fixing the puzzle of Palou received’t be straightforward, which is apparent, and if it’s going to begin taking place, qualifying is the place to have an effect on adjustments. Complicating issues is how Palou’s develop into the most effective qualifier in IndyCar. He’s taken his common beginning place by means of Mid-Ohio in 2022 (6.56) and lowered it by three full spots (3.56). Dixon’s additionally improved, however his common grid place is nicely behind his goal (7.67).
In 9 races this 12 months, Palou’s made an excellent larger leap with common ending outcomes. It was first rate a 12 months in the past (8.44), but it surely’s simply plain foolish now (3.22). His closest rival on this class is Dixon who, once more, isn’t all that shut (7.11).
Take Palou’s common lead over Dixon in qualifying (4.15 positions) and within the races (3.89), and a mixture of total enchancment in each areas for Dixon, together with the arrival of adversity for Palou, is required for that 110-point deficit to decrease. The nightmare state of affairs for Dixon and Newgarden (-116 factors) and the others who’ve slim possibilities of overtaking the Spaniard is for Palou to finish the 12 months by hovering across the podium and stopping large swings within the standings.
Even worse for the challengers could be the taking of treasured wins by those that aren’t within the title combat. If Palou can’t win, he’s cheering for the Alexander Rossis (-161 factors) and Colton Hertas (-173) and Christian Lundgaards (-183) to assert the 50-plus factors per spherical whereas maintaining them out of the fingers of the Dixons and Newgardens.
Dixon ventures into the second half of the season with a wholly totally different mission than Palou. Apart from the bruising encounter with O’Ward at Lengthy Seashore that left him in final place, he’s been a imaginative and prescient of consistency with each different end being between second to seventh. If he has any hope of overhauling his teammate, quite a few wins and podiums are the one real looking solution to get it achieved.
Sure, Palou’s lengthy overdue for some unhealthy outcomes, however hoping for the championship chief to come across unhealthy luck isn’t an precise technique. There aren’t many drivers who’ve confirmed they’ll reel in somebody like Palou, however Dixon is considered one of them.
Ericsson’s precedence for the remaining races is similar as just about everybody else’s – determine how you can cease Palou. Richard Dole/Motorsport Pictures
As a lot as we’re watching to see if Palou can hold this superb streak going, one of many nice subplots to trace is whether or not Dixon may be the one to cease it and switch the tables on his outgoing stablemate.
Marcus Ericsson was on a roll coming into Could and added to his repute by practically defending his Indy 500 win. Certain, he was mad at how the crimson flags and restarts performed out, however the larger takeaway was how his Indy win in 2022 was backed up with a run to second in 2023, and with that form of output, he’ll be nicely paid by somebody to chase extra Indy 500 wins for a few years.
A victory to open the 12 months at St. Pete, together with a podium at Lengthy Seashore and the second at Indy are his highlights in the course of the first half, and in every other season, these outcomes and holding fourth within the championship after Mid-Ohio would really feel fantastic. The rising championship shortfall to Palou—practically 2.5 race wins at 122 factors – is the place the emotions flip bitter, particularly should you think about how Ericsson led the drivers’ standings heading into the month of Could.
Like Dixon, Ericsson’s sole focus is on attaining large outcomes as shortly as potential.
By the numbers, he’s second to Palou inside the group in each what number of instances he’s led them qualifying and in being the primary driver house on the end. He’s additionally improved his common qualifying place over Mid-Ohio 2022 by 1.56 positions, however consistent with Dixon, his common beginning spot (8.44) is a number of rows behind Palou’s common (3.56).
His common ending place after 9 races is barely down from 2022 (7.33) to 2023 (8.22), and whereas no person has been on Palou’s stage since Could, Ericsson — and Dixon — do have the demonstrated capability to outrun him. Effectively, at the very least up to now. However can they with this new model of Palou?
On the identical theme as Dixon’s quest for a seventh IndyCar title, Ericsson’s pursuit of his first hinges on making Palou look mortal. It’s a tall process for the pair, however not unimaginable.
Marcus Armstrong has been a pleasant addition inside Ganassi’s driver ranks. It hasn’t been the smoothest rookie season for the New Zealander or the oldsters working the No. 11 Honda, however they’re due for a breakthrough end result that higher displays the Kiwi’s potential. The group is open to persevering with with him however no commitments have been made that we all know of, so if sticking round is Armstrong’s need, he can solidify his place with improved outcomes.
His companion within the No. 11, Takuma Sato, has achieved nicely whereas adjusting to a part-time function with lengthy layoffs between oval outings. The crash whereas working robust at Texas harm, however he rebounded at Indy with a drive to seventh.
Except a Newgarden or related breaks up the Ganassi get together on the entrance of the championship, we’ll have an old-fashioned battle between teammates to assert the IndyCar crown. And should you like drama, that crown will solely stick with Ganassi if it’s received by Dixon. Spicy instances are forward.
DALE COYNE RACING
David Malukas, No. 18 Honda, nineteenth in Drivers’ Standings (-253 factors to Palou)
Sting Ray Robb, No. 51 Honda, twenty seventh in Drivers’ Standings (-306 factors)
Richard Dole/Motorsport Pictures
As a rookie, David Malukas drove out of Mid-Ohio final 12 months together with his identify assigned to 19th within the championship. He began eighth that day for Dale Coyne Racing and completed ninth, which was the most effective efficiency of his debut season by early July. He’d go on to take eighth within the second Iowa race and caught everybody’s consideration after inserting second at WWTR following an epic drive that earned Newgarden’s respect.
And in his second IndyCar season, with one other show of oval prowess — this time at Texas — which produced a fourth-place end, and a sixth simply now at Mid-Ohio, Malukas is… 19th within the championship. A number of the poor outcomes, together with a collection of crashes, have been his duty, however some haven’t. And a change in race engineers required a interval of adjustment, however that hasn’t been an total challenge.
But it surely’s truthful to say that going from having a veteran teammate and chief like Takuma Sato to study from as a rookie to being the brand new group chief as a sophomore, whereas welcoming an excessive rookie in Sting Ray Robb, hasn’t offered Malukas with the springboard he wanted to succeed in the subsequent stage in IndyCar.
Having introduced he received’t be returning to Coyne, the 21-year-old will in all probability look again at 2023 as a 12 months the place he made solely modest positive aspects in his craft because of the lack of a Sato-like companion to assist him refine his huge pure expertise.
Even so, Malukas can proceed to rise in his last season with Coyne; he climbed from 19th to complete 16th within the standings final 12 months, two spots behind fellow rookie and rookie of the 12 months Lundgaard in 14th. Paired in 2024 with a veteran/mentor like Dixon or a Ericsson or a Rahal or a Carpenter, Malukas might make positive aspects like Lundgaard, who’s 10th within the championship after Mid-Ohio.
Robb has expertise, however I don’t know if he’s received an extended future in IndyCar. It’s not that the Idahoan doesn’t belong, however his rookie season has been essentially the most binary factor within the collection this 12 months: He’s both inflicting or caught up in another person’s yellow or crimson flags, or working anonymously in direction of the again of the sphere. There’s been no center floor.
After 9 races, Robb is final within the championship, and whereas that’s not at all a primary for a rookie, the factor we haven’t witnessed is a efficiency that implies considerably higher days are forward. On the constructive facet, he’s completed three consecutive races, which is a significant growth. All three had been in 22nd place. And whereas Robb isn’t sitting in a automotive that presents the identical likelihood to shine like fellow rookie Marcus Armstrong at Ganassi, it’s robust to disregard the distinction in outcomes – after two comparatively trouble-free runs at Mid-Ohio – that noticed Malukas declare sixth whereas Robb was 16 positions behind in 22nd.
Just a few finishes inside the highest 20 would do wonders for Robb’s inventory worth and Coyne’s backside line. Everybody at DCR will likely be rooting for Robb to seek out one other gear since Coyne’s susceptible to dropping the $1 million Leaders Circle contract for the No. 51 Honda. It sits 5 positions out of the highest 22, and solely the highest 22 in Entrants’ factors get the contracts.
The strain on Robb to carry out for Coyne – and to maintain his seat – for the subsequent eight races will likely be not like something he’s skilled within the sport. The excellent news is he has the flexibility to enhance. The unhealthy information is there’s an extended line of drivers, most of whom have deeper financial institution accounts, who wish to be within the No. 51 Honda subsequent 12 months.
ED CARPENTER RACING
Ryan Hunter-Reay, No. 20 Chevy, twenty eighth in Drivers’ Standings (-333 factors)
Rinus VeeKay, No. 21 Chevy, sixteenth in Drivers’ Standings (-236 factors to Palou)
Motorsport Pictures
Rinus VeeKay had earned a sixth at St. Petersburg, a tenth at Texas, a pole and podium at Barber, and a fourth at Mid-Ohio after 9 races in 2022, and was twelfth within the championship.
As the one actual year-to-year benchmark left to make use of whereas appraising Ed Carpenter Racing’s 2023, VeeKay featured once more in qualifying for the Indy 500 and completed 10th within the race, however not like the 4 early high 10s final 12 months, Indy serves because the Dutchman’s solely high 10 of the season.
He’s additionally fallen from 12th to 16th within the standings which, in gentle of the group’s ongoing aggressive shortcomings, isn’t horrible. But it surely’s additionally price noting that Ganassi rookie Armstrong — who earned zero factors from not racing at Texas or Indy — is just 11 factors behind VeeKay in 17th.
The excellent news for VeeKay is he could make severe headway in direction of reaching the highest 10 by the top of the 12 months; he’s simply 53 factors again from Lundgaard in 10th. However is {that a} cheap expectation to put on the 22-year-old? In all probability not. VeeKay’s championship retreat is an ideal reminder of how a group’s sudden downturn can take away a driver’s identify from the highlight, as his former teammate Conor Daly can attest.
Ignoring the tense relationship facet of issues between the group and Daly, dropping him in favor of Ryan Hunter-Reay — a confirmed normal — turned an uncomfortable possibility when the group remained misplaced after the Indy 500. If a change was going to be made, VeeKay was 15th within the championship and Daly was 20th, so parking the man in 15th wasn’t going to occur. The roots of the issue, nevertheless, arose after ECR made a daring choice in the course of the offseason.
As talked about in our season preview, ECR stood out within the paddock as the one veteran group coming into the brand new championship to make no main additions or adjustments to its group in areas that might straight enhance its outcomes. The experiment of attempting to enhance by standing nonetheless has led to precisely that: standing nonetheless. They group is all the time good on the Speedway, in order that wasn’t a difficulty to handle, however drafting in Hunter-Reay to be half driver/half forensic investigator was achieved out of necessity as a result of neither VeeKay nor Daly had been shining a light-weight on how ECR was going to seek out its means out of the highway and avenue course darkness.
VeeKay has one other 12 months left on his contract, so he’s hoping ECR will get higher, and sooner, ASAP. His market worth is dependent upon it. Hunter-Reay is already making vital contributions to the group in ways in which lengthen far past wherever he finishes, and whereas the group is speaking to a variety of drivers in regards to the No. 20 Chevy for 2024, there’s loads of work to come back earlier than the renovation is full. It received’t be a case of ‘job achieved’ by the season finale in Monterey.
Most of the groups within the neighborhood of ECR like Foyt, Meyer Shank, and RLL are simply as dissatisfied of their seasons and are hellbent on getting higher. The race to leapfrog one another is on, and with it, the recruiting wars are additionally in movement as they vie for the companies of lots of the identical individuals who could make a long-term distinction. The outcomes from the subsequent eight races will decide if ECR’s close to the pinnacle of the recruiting line.
JUNCOS HOLLINGER RACING
Callum Ilott, No. 77 Chevy, fifteenth in Drivers’ Standings (-235 factors to Palou)
Agustin Canapino, No. 78 Chevy, twenty fourth in Drivers’ Standings (-282 factors)
Michael Levitt/Motorsport Pictures
It seems like a 12 months has handed because the opening rounds of the season for the most effective David-vs-Goliath story in IndyCar when Callum Ilott and open-wheel novice Agustin Canapino had been so compelling to comply with.
For Ilott, who opened the season with finishes of fifth and ninth, the fairytale begin to his sophomore marketing campaign ended at Lengthy Seashore when he was greeted in a single day by sudden adjustments to the curbs that fired his automotive into the wall. Effectively behind the remainder of the sphere afterwards, the weekend devolved for Ilott and Canapino, and within the race, the feel-good vibe at Juncos Hollinger Racing unraveled.
JHR was met with an unsightly scene the place Canapino — main after being not noted whereas the remainder of the sphere pitted — encountered Ilott, who was attempting to keep away from being lapped. Canapino finally crashed, clashing with Helio Castroneves as nicely beforehand, and due to the blame-filled response from his house broadcasters, an enormous volley of on-line hate — together with dying threats — was geared toward Ilott and his household. JHR pressed on and put the incident behind them, however the fractures remained, which reemerged in Could when the group had been sluggish to behave when Ilott’s automotive was painfully uncompetitive on the Speedway.
To his and their credit score, Ilott charged to put 12th within the 500 with a substitute chassis, which answered any questions as as to if he’s expert on ovals, however the month was exhausting. The texture-good vibe has principally returned contained in the JHR camp, too, however the group has suffered a decline in total efficiency whereas a few of its larger rivals have motored by.
Regardless of the current slide, Ilott arrives at Toronto wedged between Graham Rahal and Rinus VeeKay within the standings, and contemplating how these two positioned 11th and 12th in final 12 months’s championship, the Briton has a purpose to really feel inspired for the place he and the No. 77 Chevy program can go if JHR can discover some further pace. Ilott’s best year-to-year enchancment has been within the races the place his common end by means of Mid-Ohio in 2022 (19.75) has leapt by 4.53 positions (15.22) in 2023. His oval performances have additionally been astounding the place he’s develop into the largest gainer within the discipline, turning final 12 months’s common end (24.00) into an enormous 13.5-position leap (10.50).
The group has taken a step backwards in common qualifying, although, because the No. 77 Chevy’s quantity by means of 9 races in 2022 (14.88) is 5.12 locations decrease (20.00) by means of Mid-Ohio. In what’s develop into a reasonably normal word for loads of groups and drivers, addressing JHR’s shortcomings in qualifying would make life simpler within the races with fewer positions wanted to be gained.
Canapino’s superb rookie season has additionally been caught in reverse since he completed 12th on the first two races. Since Lengthy Seashore, six of his final seven outcomes have been 19th or worse. A current change of race engineer to the veteran Mike Colliver ought to assist get the Argentinian again within the groove.
There’s little question as as to if Canapino is exceptionally gifted, and he’s additionally proven himself to be a quick learner. If he and Colliver can kind a fast bond, the No. 78 Chevy will transfer up within the championship by a number of positions, and that’s necessary as a result of in the intervening time, they’re just under the cutoff to earn one of many $1 million Chief Circle contracts.
Canapino and the No. 78 are 24th, 9 factors behind 22nd, and of all of the objectives they’ve to fulfill earlier than the season’s over on September 10, grabbing that $1 million is an enormous one to make occur.
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