On Friday, the Rockies and beginning pitcher Germán Márquez agreed on phrases to a two-year contract extension value a assured $20 million. This was a misplaced season for Márquez, as an elbow damage and eventual Tommy John surgical procedure resulted in him solely making 4 begins. Unsurprisingly for a pitcher struggling a significant damage, the second yr of his new deal is closely incentivized, with two roster bonuses and three inning bonuses. Márquez is anticipated to overlook the primary half of the 2024 season, but when he throws 160 innings in 2025, he’ll internet a cool $22 million for the season. The contract additionally features a $1 million project bonus, paid by his new workforce if the Rockies ought to commerce him.

An elbow damage that requires a scalpel isn’t a welcome signal for anybody, however for Márquez, initially a free agent this fall, it was a very exhausting blow. The hope had been that he would bounce again from a pedestrian 2022 season that noticed his FIP balloon to just about 5 and his strikeout fee fall about 10% from 2021. Whereas my ideas on how the Rockies have been run since, effectively, 1993 are well-known, he was one in every of their largest coups in franchise historical past. It’s exhausting to show the Rays incorrect on a younger pitcher, however that the Rockies did, choosing up Márquez and Jake McGee from Tampa Bay for Corey Dickerson and Kevin Padlo in 2016. Regardless of being solely 28, he already looms giant in Rockies historical past.

Jiménez’s three-year peak as an elite pitcher makes him the king of the mountain, however Márquez is simply a pair good months behind him. When you think about offense as effectively (Márquez was as soon as a Silver Slugger), the latter is already the chief. And whereas I can’t count on anybody in Denver to understand this, it definitely issues to me that my most up-to-date reminiscence of Márquez isn’t Buck Showalter throwing him right into a playoff recreation for no specific cause.

Lest you suppose Márquez’s lofty standing is me damning the Rockies with faint reward, he’s lengthy been one of many best-projected younger pitchers in ZiPS WAR:

Naturally, his place within the rankings dropped as he failed to take care of his 2018 strikeout fee, however a number of the decline is pure on account of having fewer tomorrows remaining. With the form of bounceback that ZiPS anticipated, he would have been taking a look at a reasonably good payday in free company. Right here’s what his long-term projections for 2024 and past appeared like earlier than the beginning of 2023. I’m utilizing a impartial park for this one since Coors Discipline is… sophisticated.

Primarily based on that projection, ZiPS advisable a seven-year, $126 million extension or $116 million over six years. That’s not Gerrit Cole cash and displays the elevated threat stemming from his 2022, however 9 figures should buy a formidable haul of products and/or providers. It definitely would have been a greater use of cash than, say, signing an getting old third baseman from the Cubs to play left area for $182 million.

I went forward and instructed ZiPS that Márquez has missed time on account of Tommy John surgical procedure (I usually do that after the season) and re-ran the numbers.

ZiPS would have prompt two years at $18.2 million, however the distinction between that and $20 million, within the context of MLB, is mainly nothing. In any case, the truth that he’s a pitcher who has survived Coors Discipline is sort of definitely value a bit additional cash, even when ZiPS isn’t particularly valuing that right here. In different phrases, the Rockies made a transfer that I can not complain about.

The place does Márquez match into the way forward for the Rockies? That’s a a lot trickier query. Whereas the very best consequence for him is that he makes a grand return subsequent July and returns to his 2017–21 peak kind, leading to him getting that $100 million contract in a few years, I’m unsure the Rockies will take fullest benefit of this sunny situation. If the group goes to turn into aggressive once more, it has quite a lot of work to do, and Márquez rocking the NL inside out in 2025 possible makes him extra helpful to the Rockies by way of who they’ll purchase for him slightly than his precise efficiency.

Buying and selling veterans, particularly veterans who had an essential previous within the story of the franchise, at all times seems to be psychologically tough for Colorado’s possession. However that’s an issue for the long run Rockies. The workforce made transfer in extending Márquez to a low-risk, high-upside contract, and that’s adequate for me to pause my grumbling.