Freddy Fermin has been manner, manner higher than I believe anybody aside from perhaps his mother anticipated this season. He’s a bit uncommon although, so I’m not positive what we must always count on from him going ahead. To attempt to determine that out, I’ve combed by way of some historical past and his superior metrics to see what it’s the Royals have discovered of their Venezuelan backstop.

Most gamers within the execs make it to their rookie 12 months earlier than they’re 28, if they’re going to make it in any respect that’s. I pulled each place participant rookie since 1990 to get at the very least 250 plate appearances (about what Fermin will find yourself at), and remoted all of them that had been 28 or older in that season. Solely 84 out of 1,256 had been in that age vary. These 84 previous rookies went on to common 2.7 fWAR of their careers. Most of them did little or no. The truth is, the highest eight of that group mainly matched the opposite 76 in whole WAR. These eight and their whole profession WAR are as follows: Melvin Mora (27.3), Carlos Ruiz (15.5), Hideki Matsui (13.3), Jamey Carroll (12.8), Damian Miller (12.6), Luke Scott (11.4), Mike Yastrzemski (10.5), and our previous buddy Nori Aoki (9.9).

You’ll discover that a few these names are on there as a result of they’re Japanese and didn’t get to go to the MLB because of the posting system. One other factor you would possibly discover, although the names listed below are obscure sufficient you won’t, is that two of these eight gamers are catchers. Each Carlos Ruiz and Damian Miller performed primarily catcher of their careers after making it to the bigs so late. Ruiz was, for a number of years, an excellent common with wonderful protection. He had a few years the place BABIP luck smiled on him and posted 3.8 and 4.7 WAR. Miller was a reliable large leaguer for a lot of years, however by no means actually hit a lot solely having one partial season the place is wRC+ topped 100. If Fermin managed to be both of these two, it might be a pleasant growth for the Royals.

What Fermin is doing shouldn’t be unprecedented at the very least. The historical past means that it’s unlikely he will probably be an day-after-day participant going ahead, however it may occur. There are few the explanation why I’m skeptical, but in addition a number of that make me assume the Royals actually have discovered a man they will depend upon right here.

First, allow us to have a look at the pessimistic view. He appears to be a few league common catcher to date, and hHe has gotten a bit fortunate with the bat. Freddy’s BABIP is sitting at .358 proper now, and that’s nicely above what we noticed within the minors for him. Baseball Savant additionally says that his slash line of .313/.350/.544 is inflated relative to his batted ball traits. His XBA is .279 and his XSLG is .499, so considerably decrease than what he has really achieved. It is rather possible that Fermin’s efficiency goes to drop off from the place it’s at the moment.

However, a .499 slug from anybody, not to mention a catcher, is incredible. If he regresses to say .275/.315/.475 even, that will nonetheless be a 110 wRC+ or so, and he can be one of many prime ten hitting catchers within the league. Is that real looking although? Nobody thought he was going to be an above common hitter. His projections going into the 12 months had been all saying that OBP is real looking, however nobody had him slugging even .400, so what’s going on?

A few of that may regress on account of his 19.5% HR/FB charge. That’s manner above his minor league charge, and usually solely the highest energy hitters can preserve a charge that prime or higher. It isn’t outlandish and doesn’t clarify the facility completely although. Fermin is simply hitting the ball persistently. He has a barrel charge of 12.2%, which is about the identical as Shohei Ohtani. He has a tough hit charge of 43.7%, not elite however strong. He additionally doesn’t strike out loads. This mixture looks like the type of factor that ought to work.

If the protection being averag-ish is true, for him to be an day-after-day participant (2+WAR), he must hit someplace in 95 wRC+, so he may fall fairly a methods from the place he’s at and nonetheless be a pleasant possibility for the Royals behind the dish. Scouts all thought his protection was strong earlier than attending to the massive leagues with a 55 as his subject grade on Fangraphs, an above-average common. All of the metrics I can discover have him only a contact above common or useless on common at each side of catching to date in 2023, however the pattern sizes are small.

If I had been pressured to guess on whether or not Freddy Fermin was a 2 WAR or extra participant subsequent season, I’d guess in opposition to him. Historical past, each of previous rookies and of this group, simply isn’t on his facet, so the sensible cash is to guess that he’s not the one out of 20 or in order that find yourself being good for a handful of years. That being stated, he has seemed the half whereas having the numbers say it’s removed from all luck. With Salvador Perez getting older and having damage issues yearly, it most likely does probably not matter from a call perspective. You virtually must preserve him and play he proves it to you in some way except somebody this offseason affords you a commerce that values him has an affordable on a regular basis catcher with loads of staff management left.