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There’s little doubt Essendon have been one of many season’s largest shock packets.
Seen by many as a bottom-four facet in a creating 12 months underneath Brad Scott, the Bombers received eight of their first 13 video games earlier than final week’s bye, and headed west to tackle Fremantle with the carrot of a win pushing them to only share behind fourth-placed Melbourne, and searching good for a September berth.
However the Dons head again throughout the Nullarbor with tails firmly between their legs, the Dockers not solely comfortably dealing with them by 32 factors – a margin that, if something, flattered them – however exposing their flaws for the world to see.
It’s truthful to say this warning from Champion Information’s Daniel Hoyne a number of weeks in the past didn’t go right down to properly with Bomber followers.
Let’s get the chilly, exhausting information out of the best way first: the Bombers are bottom-five for inside 50s per recreation, and if one in every of Gold Coast or Hawthorn have a stormer on Sunday, they’re in peril of dropping even additional.
Compounding that, solely Richmond and West Coast have conceded greater than their 791 inside 50s for the 12 months – North Melbourne are degree. Solely the Eagles, they usually barely depend, have a worse differential than them for entries into assault, sitting at the moment at -81 – -10 towards Fremantle.
Then there’s the opposite problem Hoyne flagged: averaging 65.8 intercepts per recreation places the Dons within the backside three for that as properly, with Jordan Ridley, their finest interceptor, averaging 2.3 a match – equal twenty ninth within the competitors.
This can be a dire mixture, so full credit score has to go to Brad Scott and his teaching staff for engaged on an answer. They seldom intercept mark, however solely the Tigers are forward of them for rebound 50s, rating them among the many finest within the competitors at getting out of sticky conditions when the ball reaches floor degree.
Largely, it’s by way of a chip kick to a hard-working midfielder, typically Zach Merrett or Nic Martin – the Bombers are first within the competitors for marks, with one other 102 towards the Dockers just about bang on their season common.
What’s equally spectacular is that the Dons, heading into their conflict with Fremantle, had been averaging a competition-best 23 factors per recreation launched from their defensive 50. Really, that doesn’t even do them justice – they’re one of the best staff at that since 2010.
Bombers video games, as a rule, are low-stoppage: they rank lifeless final for clearances this 12 months, however an excellent deader final for clearances conceded. On common, that they had a bit over 68 of them per recreation heading into Spherical 15, a full two behind their nearest rival – Collingwood. That’s a helpful staff to be making an attempt to duplicate.
Handily, too, the Bombers are within the high six for successful centre clearances, the one time when there’s a assured stoppage. Their recreation towards Carlton a fortnight in the past was an ideal instance of how they like to function: they had been bullied for inside 50s, with the Blues racking up 56 to only their 31; however the Dons conceded solely 35 around-the-ground stoppages for the match, shading them 19-16, and bossed the centre bounces 13-7.
Nick Bryan and Sean Darcy of the Dockers contest the ruck. (Photograph by Paul Kane/Getty Photographs)
Strain is essential to all of this, with the Bombers’ +31 edge in tackles towards the Blues taking part in an enormous half in diluting the standard of their inside 50s – simply 9 of these 56 inside 50s led to a mark, in comparison with 11 of 41 for the Dons.
Basically, that is how Essendon prefer to play: drive a pressured kick inside 50, convey it to floor, get it within the palms of a top quality kicker resembling Jordan Ridley or Mason Redman, discover an outlet – typically Martin or Dyson Heppell, who sit first and fifth for the membership or common marks – then work the ball upfield with neat, exact kicks – the Dons are second-last this 12 months for clangers – and into the competitors’s most fascinating ahead line.
Kyle Langford is the same old goal – he has 33 marks inside 50 for the season. Right here’s a listing of individuals with extra: Oscar Allen, Nick Larkey, Jesse Hogan, Tom Hawkins, Jeremy Cameron, Charlie Curnow, Harry McKay, Joe Daniher and Eric Hipwood. All significantly bigger than Essendon’s Mr Repair-It; and with 25 objectives for the season, plus one other towards Fremantle, he’s made good on his finish of the cut price.
Loads of it entails discovering a mismatch towards a smaller defender, with the massive canine occupied by a resting ruckman – Scott LOVES choosing two rucks, usually Andrew Phillips and Sam Draper – or Sam Weideman or within the final two weeks Peter Wright, and capitalising: given he’s scientifically confirmed to be stronger than Steven Might, he’s an actual hazard man.
Langford’s class masks a difficulty: with simply 17 marks inside 50 from 11 video games, Weideman is much from a commanding presence inside 50 (and misses loads of pictures in addition), and whereas Wright got here again on the good time to money in with 5 marks inside 50 and 5 objectives towards the Blues, when he was given an almighty bathtub by Alex Pearce on Saturday night time in Perth, the Bombers discovered it mighty robust to attain.
Langford, too, didn’t kick a aim after the primary 5 minutes, and had simply two marks inside 50 for the match – Luke Ryan, who took 18 grabs himself, 5 of them intercepts, ruling the skies with aplomb all night and setting the Dockers up for rebounding usually.
Redman, probably the most essential cog on the different finish of the bottom, was additionally curbed, an excellent ahead defensive position by Sam Switkowski and Lachie Schultz restricted him to only 13 disposals and two rebound 50s – each season lows.
In complete, that they had 37 rebounds for the match, an excellent eight decrease than their common and their second-lowest tally for the 12 months (three of their 4 previous-worst got here, because it occurs, in the one three video games they dominated the INSIDE 50 depend, towards North Melbourne, GWS and Hawthorn).
However that’s solely a part of the story: the place the Dockers actually uncovered the Bombers was at clearances. And particularly, the centre.
The stats themselves don’t inform the complete extent of Freo’s dominance: they received the clearance depend in complete 34-31, and 14-11 from the centre. However the scores had been outrageous: eight objectives to 2, a +40 differential, in scores from clearances, and 28 factors to 1 from the centre.
The Dockers uncovered a easy fact: the Bombers’ defence, pound for pound, is terrible. It’s solely working as a staff, with Heppell and Martin pushing again from wings to clog up house and a ruckman behind the ball for aerial assist, that they make it work.
With the 6-6-6 formation, the Dockers may and did surge the ball ahead from the center, with Caleb Serong far too good for any Bomber midfielder – his 10 clearances (six from the centre), six inside 50s and 12 rating involvements had been all staff highs – after which uncovered the Dons one on one, like Michael Walters did right here.
It’s an excellent mark, however an indictment on Jake Kelly and Brandon Zerk-Thatcher that Walters, a small man, was capable of outmark them each from an preliminary place of drawback.
Serving to issues for Freo is that their ahead line, for all its faults, is ideal for this job. Strain smalls like Schultz and Switkowski constantly prevented the Bombers from ruling the bottom ball of their defensive 50, as is their wont, and the additional strain on that defence meant hazard always.
It wasn’t like there have been extra ahead 50 stoppages – all up, 66 ball-ups and boundary throw-ins is about par for the course for the Bombers this 12 months – however moderately, the ball staying in dispute for longer. And the Dockers made them pay rather a lot.
Within the under clip, you may see Sam Durham maintain his place large of the disputed ball, anticipating Zerk-Thatcher will win or not less than neutralise: however Schultz is simply too determined, knocking the ball ahead to the person Zerk-Thatcher had left to contest, particularly Jy Amiss. He objectives.
One thing related occurred not lengthy after: Redman the offender this time, staying large of the competition searching for a handball obtain, solely to see Andrew Brayshaw cost into the fray, shrug a deal with, and kick an excellent aim.
Final week, the Dockers had been bullied at stoppages by GWS; the week earlier than, towards Richmond, the Tigers’ frenetic ball motion performed havoc with their defence.
The Dons had been, in some ways, an ideal match for them: they play wise, ball-control footy from defence, which leaves them susceptible to strain inflicting turnovers, and aren’t Giants-level robust in midfield, giving the Dockers and Serong specifically an edge to take advantage of.
To then flip these benefits into the type of contest-scoring dominance the Dockers loved was distinctive teaching from Justin Longmuir, and distinctive play from his staff… and leaves the Bombers with an issue to kind.
Groups now have a blueprint for beating Essendon: come at them. Defensively, they all the time arrange properly, however the faster you may transfer the ball inside 50, the extra doubtless you’ll be to create one-on-one contests, the place the Dons are further susceptible.
Three objectives from Luke Jackson and two from Jy Amiss, each talls nearly as good under their knees as above their heads, was the proof of the pudding: the Dockers had a ahead line with everybody able to doing their bit at floor degree, the place the Bombers normally have management.
This isn’t the tip of the world for the Bombers: they’re nonetheless properly forward of the place nearly everybody forecast they’d be, and never each staff has the weapons Fremantle do at floor degree in assault and round stoppages. Not each recreation will they arrive up towards a Serong kind on absolute hearth, nor a staff seemingly decided to proper the wrongs of a previous shocker.
However it’s one thing different groups can be taking a look at carefully. The Dons, as a rule, lose the territory battle most weeks, and discover a technique to win regardless of it. Because of the Dockers on Saturday night time, there’s now a blueprint to profit from it.
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