With 18 races having been run thus far on the 2023-2024 Street to the Kentucky Derby introduced by Woodford Reserve, the Grade 3, $250,000 Sam F. Davis Stakes  at Tampa Bay Downs is the midway mark as we transfer towards the primary Saturday in Might.

This Sam F. Davis brings collectively a full subject of 12, led by West Saratoga, winner of the Grade 3 Iroquois Stakes final September. Agate Street is one other graded stakes winner, however on turf, having proved greatest within the Grade 2 Pilgrim Stakes in October. Copper Tax gained the non-graded Rocky Run Stakes in October and is one other who might match with these. Patriot Spirit gained the Inaugural Stakes in December sprinting on the Tampa Bay Downs fundamental observe, and he’s stretching out to 2 turns for the primary time. Among the many remainder of the sphere there are just a few attempting stakes competitors for the primary time however with glorious latest type, together with Change of Command, who has gained two in a row together with a two-turn race at Tampa Bay Downs final month. Tireless additionally gained a route at Tampa final month and is certainly one of two skilled by Todd Pletcher (the opposite being Agate Street), who has saddled the winner of this race 3 times within the final 10 years and 7 occasions total. Fulmineo completed second behind Agate Street within the Pilgrim final fall on turf, and extra lately was second on this observe in a two-turn filth race, gained by Loopy Mason. Elysian Meadows is unbeaten in two begins, each sprints, however can’t be counted out as he’s skilled by Invoice Mott, who gained this race in 2021 with Sweet Man Rocket. No Extra Time enters the race off a fifth-place end within the Mucho Macho Man Stakes on New 12 months’s Day, with Everdoit farther again in sixth in that very same race. El Principito rounds out the sphere, with solely a win final summer time in a dash to his credit score and having been non-competitive in 5 races since then.

Major win contenders:

Change of Command has been introduced alongside slowly by Corridor of Fame coach Shug McGaughey, who began him at six furlongs final summer time then two races later in November stretched him out to a mile. That effort in his third profession begin earned the colt a career-best 86 Equibase Velocity Determine though he pale to second after main in midstretch. That effort was no shame as winner Sierra Leone got here again to steer late and almost win the Remsen Stakes the subsequent month. In the meantime, Change of Command gained his subsequent race in December.  Then, when stretched out to 2 turns final month, the colt returned to prime type profitable by a neck after gamely battling head-and-head for the ultimate three-sixteenths of a mile. High jockey Tyler Gaffalione, who has been using on daily basis at Gulfstream Park and infrequently rides at Tampa Bay Downs, comes throughout the state for a possible Kentucky Derby mount. With simply slight enchancment off his final effort, Change of Command can present this prime coach and jockey a win on this 12 months’s Sam F. Davis Stakes.

Agate Street strikes again to filth, the place he missed by a nostril in his debut final summer time, after a wonderful effort within the Dania Seashore Stakes final month on the grass at Gulfstream Park. Certainly one of two saddled by Todd Pletcher, who has gained this race 3 times previously 10 years.  Agate Street follows the same sample as that of 2018 Sam F. Davis winner Flameaway, who gained the Kitten’s Pleasure Stakes, run on the identical weekend that 12 months because the Dania Seashore was run this 12 months. Final fall, Agate Street gained the Grade 2 Pilgrim Stakes on grass with an 80 Equibase Velocity Determine. Though subsequently fifth of 11 the next month within the Prevagen Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, he was solely crushed two lengths for the win and improved to a 104 determine which, if repeated, would make him the one to beat on this subject. There’s little doubt Agate Street can run as nicely on filth as he has on turf as he’s a son of High quality Street out of a mare whose different foal has earned greater than $300,000 and has gained 4 filth route races. As such, Agate Street needs to be taken very severely as a contender for all of the marbles on this race.

Tireless is the opposite Pletcher trainee and on that rely have to be revered. Like Agate Street does for this race, Tireless moved from turf to filth in November, incomes a then career-best 83 pace determine with a tremendous runner-up effort. Making his first begin at Tampa Bay Downs final month, Tireless ran even higher, rallying from fourth to attract off a bit late and incomes a brand new greatest 88 Equibase Velocity Determine. This well-bred colt who price $875,000 at public sale in 2022 has a shiny future forward of him. Apart from the actual fact he’s by no means run in a stakes race, Tireless seems to have what it takes to be aggressive in opposition to this group.

Elysian Meadows may be very prone to be a longshot on this subject, having drawn the generally disadvantageous outdoors put up and attempting two turns and stakes competitors for the primary time. Nevertheless, it could be a mistake to disregard him provided that Corridor of Fame coach Invoice Mott wouldn’t have entered the colt on this race if he didn’t consider he was this good. In 2021, Mott saddled Sweet Man Rocket to win and Nova Rags for the runner-up spot, with each getting into the Sam F. Davis off sprints. Though Elysian Meadows’ last-race pace determine of 80 is a bit under the three contenders beforehand talked about, he jumped from a 74 determine in his prior race. If he strikes up by the same margin to an 86 pace determine, that might imply he’ll run as quick as Change of Command (85 final race determine) and Tireless (88 final race determine), presumably at excessive odds.

Though I consider West Saratoga is a proficient horse, I’m taking a stand in opposition to him as a win contender on this subject. It is because not solely does his report of two wins, 4 seconds, and 0 thirds in eight races counsel he’s simply as content material to complete second as win, I used to be not impressed by his comeback after three months off on Jan. 13 within the Pasco Stakes. In that race, West Saratoga was removed from as match as he was within the fall when profitable the Iroquois Stakes with an 87 determine, as his determine within the Pasco was simply 68. Moreover, each of his wins got here on the distance of a mile round one flip at Ellis Park in August after which within the Iroquois. When tried round two turns for the primary time within the Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity final fall, West Saratoga seemed to be a robust contender after racing in third for the primary half-mile, however then pale steadily and ended up fifth, crushed 11 lengths by the winner. That being mentioned, after he has one other race below his belt in 2024, West Saratoga could also be a robust candidate to run ok to win one other race on the Derby path like this one.

The remainder of the sphere (with greatest Equibase Velocity Determine): Copper Tax (98), Loopy Mason (83), El Principito (71), Everdoit (87), Fulmineo (82), No Extra Time (87) and Patriot Spirit (87).  

Major Win Contenders, in chance order:

Change of Command

Agate Street

Tireless

Elysian Meadows

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