FIDE is predicted to make vital modifications to its ranking system on January 1, which features a one-time adjustment for many rated gamers, a rise of the ranking ground, and modifications to the preliminary ranking.

In July, the FIDE {Qualifications} Fee (QC) opened a public dialogue so as to enhance the accuracy of the ranking system and fight deflation. 

After receiving greater than 150 feedback from the general public, the working group, consisting of GM Aleksander Moiseenko, GM Pavel Tregubov, Nick Faulks, Vladimir Kukaev, and Sabrina de San Vincente, along with statistician Jeff Sonas, introduced the conclusions of the discussions this week.

4 modifications to the ranking system have been advisable by the group. These modifications will take impact on January 1, 2024, if authorised by the FIDE Council on December 14:

1. One-Time Adjustment To Classical Scores
2. Adjustment of the Ranking Flooring
3. Adjustments within the preliminary ranking
4. Reinstallment of the 400-point rule

Ranking Enhance Of Up To 400 factors

The adjustment for gamers rated beneath 2000 will have an effect on 85% of rated gamers who will see their ranking improve with the next components:

(0.40) x (2000 – Ranking)

The components means gamers may have someplace between 0 and 400 Elo factors added to their rankings. Gamers rated at precisely 1000, would get a rise of virtually 400 factors, whereas a participant rated 1500 would improve the ranking by 200 factors. A participant rated at 1950 will solely get 20 factors added.

Sonas defined that the aim is to compress the rankings from 1400-2000 with out affecting the order of the gamers, solely the spacing between them. 

“There can be the identical 346,000 gamers rated beneath 2000 Elo each earlier than and after; it is simply that they might now span a variety of 600 Elo factors relatively than 1,000 Elo factors,” Sonas writes.

Growing Ranking Flooring To 1400

One other main change is the adjustment of the minimal FIDE ranking from 1000 to 1400. The graphic beneath reveals how the distribution of rated gamers has modified throughout the final 20 years:

Sonas defined that the gradual discount of the minimal ranking to 1800 in 2001, then incrementally to 1600, 1400, 1200, and at last 1000 in August 2012, had a “very problematic side-effect”:

Many youthful/weaker gamers obtain very low preliminary FIDE rankings now at a really younger age, throughout the stage of their profession when their chess talent is bettering most quickly, and this mixture of low preliminary rankings and rapidly-improving gamers has in the end produced a robust deflationary stress upon the general ranking system for the previous decade. 

Sonas says that whereas the ranking system skilled inflation 20-30 years in the past with increasingly more gamers rated above 2700, the issue is now “ranking deflation.” The idea is that a whole bunch of hundreds of recent lower-rated gamers entered the system, and as they’ve competed, improved, and gained ranking factors, they’ve additionally taken them from established gamers, sparking an total deflation.

One other level is how the COVID-19 shutdown, with the drastic discount in occasions, made issues worse for deflation, in accordance with Sonas.

The dearth of rated occasions didn’t maintain all these weaker junior gamers from bettering their chess talent, creeping ever nearer towards the enjoying energy of master-level gamers.  However the shutdown did severely limit the flexibility of the Elo ranking system to maintain tempo with the development of all these weaker junior gamers.  Due to this, it appears fairly believable {that a} 1500 Elo ranking as we speak, for instance, displays a more in-depth proximity to master-level talent than a 1500 

Calculation Enhancements

The opposite proposed modifications, are referred to as “Calculation Enhancements.” The 400-Factors Rule might be reinstated to the pre-2022 state, with no restrictions on what number of instances it may be utilized to a participant throughout a single event. 

FIDE famous that 90% of the suggestions from the general public wished to reverse the rule.

There will even be modifications to the preliminary ranking. Unrated gamers reaching a plus rating in opposition to rated opponents may have their preliminary ranking calculated based mostly on the efficiency ranking derived from their share rating, with the utmost not exceeding 2200.

Whether or not this may have the meant impact, stays to be seen, however Sonas appears assured and concludes ultimately:

There may be each cause to anticipate that these measures might be very efficient at reversing the results of a decade or extra of ranking deflation, in addition to offering sturdy counter-measures to stop it from taking place once more.  This can result in a FIDE Commonplace Elo ranking system that might be functioning much better than is at the moment the case.

The suggestions are meant to use to all codecs: classical, speedy, and blitz.