In 2023, two-time Eclipse Award-winning coach Brad Cox despatched a colt named Hit Present to contest the $250,000, Grade 3 Withers Stakes, a 1 1/8-mile Street to the Kentucky Derby qualifier at Aqueduct. Hit Present had run 3 times, profitable his debut at Keeneland earlier than ending fourth and first in allowance-optional claiming races at Churchill Downs and Oaklawn Park. Within the Withers, Hit Present rallied to win by 5 1/2 lengths over Arctic Conceitedness, runner-up in Aqueduct’s Jerome Stakes one month prior.

Will a largely an identical script unfold within the 2024 renewal of the Withers? A nine-horse subject will vie for the 42 Kentucky Derby qualification factors awarded on a 20-10-6-4-2 foundation to the highest 5 finishers, and we anticipate #3 Lightline will play the position of Hit Present whereas #4 El Grande O fills in for Arctic Conceitedness.

The type of Lightline is kind of just like that of Hit Present. The son of 2018 Breeders’ Cup Dust Mile winner Metropolis of Mild debuted for Brad Cox in a one-mile maiden particular weight at Horseshoe Indianapolis, which he dominated by 13 3/4 lengths. Then Lightline completed second in a $100,000 allowance-optional claimer at Keeneland and second once more in an $80,000 allowance-optional claimer at Oaklawn Park.

The winners of these allowance races have been high quality horses. At Keeneland, first place went to Stretch Experience, who returned to complete third within the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Membership Stakes on the Street to the 2024 Kentucky Derby. At Oaklawn, the winner was Carbone, an undefeated colt who ranks among the many favorites to win Saturday’s $800,000, Grade 3 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn.

Although the Withers is a Grade 3 stakes, it doesn’t look any more durable on paper than these Keeneland and Oaklawn allowance races. Lightline’s essential rival is El Grande O, an achieved speedster who has conquered New York-bred rivals within the Bertram F. Bongard and Sleepy Hole Stakes at Aqueduct.

However whereas El Grande O is quick and achieved, it’s potential the 1 1/8-mile distance of the Withers will probably be a stumbling block. El Grande O has but to run farther than one mile or compete in a race round two turns, which he’ll must do within the Withers. Moreover, El Grande O has misplaced floor by the ultimate eighth of a mile in all three of his one-mile races, together with when weakening to complete second within the Jan. 6 Jerome Stakes on the Kentucky Derby path.

El Grande O’s expertise could also be enough to land him a top-three end within the Withers, even when he struggles on the longer distance. However holding off Lightline within the stretch might show troublesome. It’s value noting Lightline is a half-brother to Reigning Spirit, who completed second by a head within the 1 1/2-mile, Grade 3 Louisville Stakes. Stretching out to 1 1/8 miles ought to go well with Lightline simply advantageous.

Subsequently, we suggest constructing wagering methods round Lightline, betting him to win and taking part in him on prime of an exacta utilizing El Grande O, #1 Pace Runner, and #7 Mission Seashore for second place.

Pace Runner is the one horse within the Withers subject with a victory racing 1 1/8 miles below his belt. The chestnut colt by 2017 Horse of the 12 months Gun Runner debuted with a third-place end dashing seven-eighths of a mile at Aqueduct, then stretched out to 1 1/8 miles and received a maiden particular weight race by a neck. Pace Runner displayed tactical velocity that day and figures to safe a ahead place within the Withers, giving his evident stamina an opportunity to shine down the homestretch.

As for Mission Seashore, he confirmed flashes of capacity final summer time, profitable his debut at Del Mar over future Runhappy Del Mar Futurity third-place finisher Subsequent Stage. He adopted up with a good fifth-place end within the Grade 1 Hopeful Stakes at Saratoga, crushed by 5 lengths after dueling for the lead for a lot of the race.

Mission Seashore utterly misfired in his third begin, ending final out of 4 within the Grade 3 Bob Hope Stakes at Del Mar, however he bounced again properly in a $62,500 allowance-optional claimer sprinting at Laurel Park, sweeping from off the tempo to attain by 1 3/4 lengths. As a son of two-time Horse of the 12 months and famend stallion Curlin, Mission Seashore has the pedigree to relish racing 1 1/8 miles, so stretching out in distance might set off a career-best efficiency.

Wagering Technique on a $10 Finances

$10 to win on #3 Lightline

What to say on the betting window: Aqueduct, Race 9, $10 to win on 3

Wagering Technique on a $30 Finances

$15 to win on #3 Lightline

What to say on the betting window: Aqueduct, Race 9, $15 to win on 3

$5 exacta: 3 with 1,4,7 ($15)

What to say on the betting window: Aqueduct, Race 9, $5 exacta 3 with 1,4,7

Good luck, and benefit from the race!