The Tampa Bay Rays have been unexpectedly good this season. Astoundingly, shockingly good.

No one believed the Rays could be horrible. Oddsmakers predicted this spring that Tampa Bay would end with one of many American League’s greatest data. Caesars Sportsbook set the Rays’ over/underneath at 89 wins, trailing solely the Houston Astros (95), New York Yankees (94), and Toronto Blue Jays (92) among the many 15 AL golf equipment.

However the Rays have vastly exceeded these excessive expectations, successful 35 of their first 50 video games, translating to a victory fee of .700. In the event that they have been to keep up that feverish tempo over the whole 162-game schedule, they might end with 113.4 wins, surpassing Caesars’s preseason forecast by 24.4.

That’s the very definition of overachievement.

But Tampa Bay’s file — amazingly good although it might be — nonetheless doesn’t rank as 2023’s greatest shock. That distinction belongs to Baltimore, which was pegged for a shedding 12 months with an over/underneath of 78 wins. The Orioles responded by going 33-17 of their first 50 video games, the equal of 106.9 victories over a full season. That’s 28.9 wins past their anticipated complete.

Solely the fiercest diehards consider that the Rays and Orioles can keep their exalted data for the whole 12 months. However the 50-game mark gives a great alternative to separate baseball’s highest and lowest achievers, and each of these golf equipment positively belong within the former group.

So do the Texas Rangers (plus-22.2), Arizona Diamondbacks (plus-17.5), and Pittsburgh Pirates (plus-16.7), the opposite three groups which have double-digit win balances, primarily based on comparisons of their spring predictions and 50-game projections.

On the reverse finish of the size are the Oakland Athletics. The oddsmakers totally anticipated the A’s to be horrible in 2023, which is why Caesars set their over/underneath at 59.5 wins, the bottom predicted complete within the American League. (Solely the Nationwide League’s Washington Nationals have been slotted underneath Oakland with a forecast of 59.0 wins.)

However the Athletics have been significantly extra dismal than envisioned. Their 10-40 file would translate to only 32.4 victories over a full 162-game slate. That yields a steadiness of minus-27.1, simply the worst within the majors.

The runners-up for underachievement are the Kansas Metropolis Royals (minus-19.9) and San Diego Padres (minus-19.5).

The next breakdown reveals the 50-game file for every membership, adopted by its season win prediction (as issued by Caesars in March), its win projection (primarily based on its 50-game file), and the ensuing steadiness. Groups are ranked from the very best overachievers — thus far — to the worst underachievers.

A brand new installment will arrive in your e mail every weekday morning