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By Ed McNamara
These are disturbing instances for the world and for America, and our nationwide race displays the chaos. Two of the previous three winners of the Kentucky Derby had been disqualified, an unprecedented burst of weirdness. The 148th version is also shaping up as odd, and for a novel motive.
Mr. Derby himself, six-time winner Bob Baffert, is barred from competing at Churchill Downs, and his lengthy sequence of remedy violations justify the ban. All of his stakes-winning 3-year-olds — Messier, Pinehurst, Blackadder, Newgrange, Corniche — are prohibited from incomes Derby qualifying factors.
Chances are high that some, if not all, can be moved to different trainers earlier than the 5 main preps — Florida Derby, Santa Anita Derby, Arkansas Derby, Blue Grass, Wooden Memorial. Every gives 100 factors to the winner and 40 to the runner-up, which might enable them to catch up and make the massive race.
It’s too early to attract conclusions about this 3-year-old class, however the present record of prime 10 qualifiers is tough to get enthusiastic about. In addition to Epicenter, the chief with 64 factors, Smile Blissful (No. 2) and Traditional Causeway (No. 6), none has impressed me.
SECRET OATH – The Martha Washington – forty fourth Operating – Picture courtesy of Coady Images
The filly Secret Oath has no Derby factors, however she’s on a roll for Wayne Lukas. She dominated Saturday’s Grade 3 Honeybee at Oaklawn by 7 1/2 lengths, her third consecutive stakes win there (whole margin: 23 lengths). The daughter of Arrogate is nominated for the Arkansas Derby and the Kentucky Derby, and it could be a fantastic story if the 86-year-old Lukas bypassed the Kentucky Oaks for the Derby. Lukas educated the final filly to win it (Profitable Colours, 1988).
The massive image will start to vary beginning with Saturday’s Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream. It’s just one 1/16 miles, although, and a win at that distance not often forecasts success at 1 1/4 miles on the primary Saturday in Might. Going again to 1980, solely Orb (2013) and Thunder Gulch (1995) hit the Fountain of Youth-Kentucky Derby double, however a win (50 factors) Saturday will get you into the massive race.
The Fountain of Youth is the third leg of a decide 3 I’ll attempt to hit. I’ll additionally analyze two different Derby preps, the Gotham at Aqueduct and the San Felipe at Santa Anita.
$200,000 Gulfstream Park Mile (G2), 4-year-olds and up
I’ll use solely two horses, seemingly favourite Speaker’s Nook (3) and Fearless (4), whom he beat by 1 1/4 lengths final time over the course and distance. Speaker’s Nook has gained 4 straight round one flip, and he can lead or stalk.
I omitted Ny Site visitors, who’s not near what he was in 2020, when he misplaced by a nostril to eventual Horse of the Yr Genuine after working second in back-to-back stakes. He’s dropped eight in a row towards open firm, with the one two wins in his final 10 races towards fellow New York-breds.
$200,000 Mac Diarmida (G2), 1 3/8 miles, turf, 4-year-olds and up
I’ll single favourite Abaan (1), a front-running marathoner who’s gained three in a row at 1 3/8, 2 and 1 1/2 miles, the final two at Gulfstream. He’s taken 5 of his final six on grass and is available in off three sturdy exercises for Todd Pletcher.
$400,000 Fountain of Youth (G2), 1 1/16 miles, 3-year-olds
I’ll go along with 4 horses in a aggressive scramble that ought to have a vigorous tempo. Simplification (2) ran nicely to be second within the Holy Bull after a poor begin. Howling Time (3), at 15-1 within the morning line, may very well be a reside longshot judging by his three straight bullet works at Gulfstream. He gained a two-turn stakes at Churchill in his second begin earlier than fading to fifth behind the extremely regarded trio of Smile Blissful, Traditional Causeway and White Abarrio.
Emmanuel- Picture courtesy of Ryan Thompson-Coglianese Photographs
Rattle and Roll (6), a powerful nearer, has two wins round two turns however like Howling Time makes his first begin at 3. Emmanuel (8), 2-for-2 by 11 1/4 lengths for Pletcher, will get a category check as he strikes into stakes firm.
The decide 3 numbers: 3,4 with 1 with 2,3,6,8 for a $24 funding on a $3 base guess.
AQUEDUCT
$300,000 Gotham (G3), 1-mile, 3-year-olds
It’s a must to return 49 years, to Secretariat, to search out the final Gotham winner who gained the Kentucky Derby. Regardless of who finishes first Saturday, it’s very unlikely he’ll be an element within the Triple Crown. However the winner will get 50 factors, so we might even see him on Derby Day.
Baffert normally has the products when he ships from California to New York stakes, and Rockefeller (10) appears powerful. He will get critical class aid after chasing stablemates Corniche and Newgrange out west. He’s additionally the one graded-stakes winner within the discipline — Belmont’s Grade 3 Nashua, just like the Gotham a one-turn mile.
Morello (9), 2-for-2 on the Huge A, appeared good stalking and ending large to dominate the 7-furlong Jimmy Winkfield in solely his second begin. Daring Journey (8) is fast, has strong figures however may very well be compromised by a probable sizzling tempo.
Santa Anita – Picture courtesy of Santa Anita Press Launch
$400,000 San Felipe (G2), 1 1/16 miles, 3-year-olds
Coach Richard Mandella tries two turns with Forbidden Kingdom (6) after he went wire to wire towards three Baffert runners within the 7-furlong San Vicente. Certainly one of them, Pinehurst, gained the Saudi Derby final weekend, and one other, Doppelganger (5), returns to problem Forbidden Kingdom after falling brief by 2 3/4 lengths. Baffert’s fast Armagnac (3) dominated a 1 1/16-mile maiden at Santa Anita, reveals 4 strong exercises since, and is eligible to enhance.
Ed McNamara is an award-winning journalist who has been writing about thoroughbred racing for 35 years. He has handicapped races for ESPN.com, Newsday and The Document of New Jersey. He’s the writer of “Cajun Racing: From the Bush Tracks to the Triple Crown” and co-author of “The Most Superb Crown,” a chronicle of the primary 12 Triple Crown champions.
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