Churchill Downs runs its conventional Thanksgiving Day card on Nov. 23 with 12 races, highlighted by two graded stakes. The second of these, the $400,000, Grade 3 Falls Metropolis Stakes, brings collectively a number of the greatest fillies and mares in coaching that didn’t run within the Longines Breeders’ Cup Distaff 3 ½ weeks earlier.

This yr’s Falls Metropolis drew a nine-horse discipline set to run 1 1/8 miles on filth, with one possible early scratch in Hidden Connection (#1), who ran within the Chilukki Stakes at Churchill on Nov. 18. The standout is Xigera (#8), who has reworked right into a graded stakes winner for coach Phil Bauer since being switched from turf to filth. The Falls Metropolis has a scheduled submit time of 4:22 p.m. ET and shall be broadcast on FanDuel TV.

Restricted to a $30 price range, right here’s my betting technique for the Falls Metropolis, specializing in trifectas:

Xigera is a standout on this discipline primarily based on current type, as she is available in off two consecutive open-length wins in filth stakes, the 1 1/16-mile Seneca In a single day Stakes on this Churchill observe in late September after which the 1 1/8-mile, Grade 2 Mom Goose Stakes (held round one flip) on Oct. 28 on the Belmont on the Huge A (Aqueduct) meet. The three-year-old Nyquist filly additionally gained a turf stakes earlier this yr and completed third as a 2-year-old within the 2022 Grade 1 Darley Alcibiades Stakes at Keeneland on filth. She has proven the flexibility to price simply off the tempo earlier than taking command in early stretch in each of her current filth wins, and jockey Julien Leparoux ought to have the ability to transfer his filly right into a stalking spot from the eighth submit place earlier than the sphere hits the primary flip. Xigera’s not dealing with a world-class discipline within the Falls Metropolis, and it will be a shock to see her end worse than second.

With that in thoughts, I’ll key Xigera on high of a $4 trifecta over three different fillies and mares, totaling $24. The primary one I’ll focus on is Bellamore (#9), who stands a small probability to upset Xigera and a greater one to carry on and end second or third. The Empire Maker filly has not embarrassed herself towards top-class firm this yr, ending third behind possible Eclipse Award winner Idiomatic two begins again within the Grade 1 Juddmonte Spinster Stakes at Keeneland. She additionally practically gained the Grade 2 Fleur de Lis Stakes in July however was disqualified from second to 3rd in a three-horse discipline for drifting and bumping a rival late. Bellamore additionally completed second in final yr’s Falls Metropolis by a size to Phil Bauer-trained Performed Arduous. Martin Garcia was aboard Bellamore in all three of those races and can trip her on Thanksgiving. I anticipate him to be aggressive with this filly and have her positioned no worse than third by the backstretch and presumably on the lead.

The opposite two fillies-mares I’ll use within the trifecta are longshots who will hopefully boost the payout even when favored Xigera wins. Skratch Kat (#2) is Phil Bauer’s second starter on this race together with Xigera, and the Arrogate filly is available in off back-to-back wins at Keeneland and Churchill, each in 1 1/16-mile allowance-optional claiming races. She’s additionally tussled with the likes of Nest, Clariere, and Secret Oath earlier in her profession. Misty Veil (#4) is a Mike Maker trainee who completed third behind Search Outcomes and Hidden Connection within the Locust Grove Stakes on this observe in September. She has gained simply six occasions in 31 begins however has completed second 10 occasions and third 4 occasions, and she or he is skilled racing each at Churchill (9 begins) and at 1 1/8 miles (six begins). Search for her to select off a couple of stragglers late and hopefully rise up in time to hit the board.

With the remaining $6 in my price range, I’ll place Xigera second in a $1 trifecta with these three opponents simply in case she takes a large dip within the type cycle Thursday afternoon and an upset happens.

Right here’s how one can name out the bets on the mutuel window or key them in on-line:

Churchill Downs, Race 11, $4 trifecta, 8 over 2,4,9 over 2,4,9 ($24)

Churchill Downs, Race 11, $1 trifecta, 2,4,9 with 8 with 2,4,9 ($6)