Kyle Schwarber of the Philadelphia Phillies; CC by License 2.0

The wave of three true end result hitters and the general model of baseball that comes with it has been astounding. There have been lots of people who’ve been dogging this type of baseball and questioning if it even works and whether it is price doing. You will need to perceive what 3 true outcomes are and if a hitter using this technique can efficiently do it and the way they will efficiently do it.

What are the three True Outcomes?

The three true outcomes are house runs, strikeouts, and walks and a 3 true end result hitter is one who primarily does these three issues. These hitters try to hit the ball out each probability they will get and this results in extra strikeouts however they’re additionally taking extra walks as properly. There’s numerous criticism round this technique for hitters as it’s known as dangerous baseball. It’s known as dangerous as a result of it’s usually actually robust to look at these guys play resulting from numerous dangerous strikeouts and never numerous balls in play. Any Yankee fan can attest to this as they needed to watch Gallo wrestle badly whereas using the three true end result technique. On this new period of baseball, now we have been seeing a serious improve in the sort of technique whereas hitting.

The graph above reveals the share of plate appearances ending in an HR, Okay, or strikeout per 12 months throughout your entire league. That is known as 3 true end result proportion and it has risen fairly persistently over the previous 40 years. What has led to this improve? This improve has come from a change in philosophy throughout the sport of baseball as an entire and within the improve of the sabermetrics as properly. Dwelling runs are at an all-time excessive which has led to extra gamers going all out to hit house runs which has led to a serious improve in strikeouts as properly. The massive disagreement with this philosophy is whether it is working or not. The actual fact of the matter is that it depends upon the hitter on if that is working or not. Some hitters have the uncooked energy to simply give attention to hitting house runs however different gamers haven’t any enterprise doing this technique. There are many hitters who make use of this all-or-nothing mentality with various levels of success. Nonetheless, the rationale there are such a lot of extra of those hitters in at present’s sport going for this technique is as a result of they’re allowed to. Usually these 3 true end result guys have low BA, excessive SLUG, and excessive Okay numbers. Prior to now guys with all these numbers weren’t given numerous alternative due to how a lot BA was valued, however now we’re seeing increasingly hitters who’re promoting all out for HRs and walks on the expense of strikeouts. There’s a good stability for all this and that is what it appears to be like like on a graph.

This graph reveals how a lot a participant should stroll and hit HRs to fight the Okay%. This can be a very tough estimate and in no way excellent however for each 1% of Okay% the participant will need to have a .598% BB%+HR%. So if a participant strikes out 20% of the time they will need to have a HR+BB% of 11.97%. These numbers come from only a tough estimate of what a participant ought to be in an effort to be environment friendly with the Okay% they’ve. A participant who’s above the road is strolling and hitting sufficient house runs to fight the strikeout price they’ve. A participant beneath the road is placing out an excessive amount of in comparison with the walks and residential runs. The massive knock on these 3 true end result guys is that they strike out an excessive amount of to be efficient gamers. This graph goals to point out a method if a participant is placing out an excessive amount of or not in comparison with the walks and residential runs. If a participant is placing out loads they higher be strolling and hitting numerous house runs. Now that it has been established what it takes for 3 true end result gamers to be efficient; it’s time to take a look at examples of three true end result hitters all through historical past and see in the event that they have been efficient.

3 True Final result Examples

Earlier than examples you will need to set up a baseline. For a hitter to be thought of a real end result hitter they will need to have a real end result% of above 42.5%.

Rob Deer (1984-1996)

Rob Deer was one of many first gamers to ever be a legit 3 true end result man as he posted profession totals of 31.2% Okay%, 12.7% BB%, and 5.1% HR%. This lands him at 49% of his profession PA ending in a Okay, BB, or HR. This is without doubt one of the largest totals in MLB historical past. Nonetheless, for his profession, he was barely beneath the required line of effectivity on the graph above. For his profession, he jumped backwards and forwards over the effectivity line and he helped pave the way in which for the way forward for three true end result hitters. Deer by no means made an all-star group or received any gold gloves however his influence for the longer term was essential. In a time when it was disturbing to place the ball in play each time; Deer was capable of pave a strong profession path out of being a three-true end result hitter.

Jim Thome (1991-2012)

Thome is well the largest title on this checklist as he was a slam dunk HOF with over 600 profession HRs. Nonetheless, adore it or hate; he was a 3 true end result man. For his profession, he had a 24.7% Okay%, 16.9% BB%, and 5.9% HR%. This lands him properly above the effectivity line for his profession and places him at 47.5% for his profession 3 true end result%. Thome was probably the greatest hitters of the 2000s whereas nonetheless placing out at charges far above league common for his time. He’s the right instance of a man who knew what kind of hitter he needed to be in an effort to achieve success. He seemingly wouldn’t have been the identical hitter if he tried to place the ball in play each time. Thome confirmed what may occur when a man with HOF-type energy offered all out for his energy.

Mark Reynolds (2007-2019)

Reynolds was a really strong participant for 12 years whereas taking part in for 8 groups in his profession. He made his dwelling on having numerous energy whereas placing out loads. His profession totals regarded like: 30.9% Okay%, 11.3% BB%, and 4.8% HR%. This lands him with a profession 47% profession 3 true end result%. This lands him beneath the effectivity line and his largest challenge was merely not sufficient walks and too many Okay’s. He had the elite energy however he merely couldn’t regulate his different numbers sufficient. Regardless of not being a profitable 3 true end result man he was nonetheless a barely above league common hitter for his profession and was capable of put collectively a strong profession utilizing this technique.

Kyle Schwarber (2015-Current)

Schwarber is without doubt one of the largest three true end result guys round at present and he has been doing it his complete profession. His 2023 12 months has gone viral as he’s hitting simply .183 however nonetheless has a .759 OPS. For his profession, he has a 28.4% Okay%, 13.6% BB%, and 6.1% HR%. This lands him at an insane 48.1% for his profession whole and this lands him above the effectivity line for his profession. His 2023 season has him at 29.3% Okay%, 16.8% BB%, and 5.9% HR%. This has him at an absurd 52% of his PA ending in one of many three outcomes and has him properly above the effectivity line. Regardless of him hitting simply .183 he has been getting on base a good quantity along with his walks and maintaining his strikeouts below that 30% mark. General, Schwarber has been capable of carve out a really spectacular profession utilizing this technique and he has been a really profitable hitter this 12 months as properly.

Joey Gallo (2015- Current)

Gallo is no doubt probably the most polarizing 3 true end result hitter within the MLB at present. He has an absurd 37.8% profession Okay% and likewise a 14.8% BB% and 6.5% HR%. He has a wild 59.1% profession 3 true end result%. This leads him to be beneath the effectivity line and the principle purpose for that is the Okay% that’s method too excessive to be environment friendly. His 2023 season has been ever decrease as he has 43% Okay% whereas his BB% and HR% are just like his common. Gallo has a Okay% that’s only a plain and easy method too excessive to be an environment friendly hitter even in at present’s sport. He has nonetheless been capable of put collectively two all-star seasons although and general has had a strong MLB profession.

Three true end result hitters are more and more widespread in at present’s sport and they’re right here to remain, adore it or hate it. The complexity round them on in the event that they work or not is a really tough query to ask. Nonetheless, the actual fact of the matter is that when it’s completed proper and if a hitter is ready to correctly considerably handle their strikeouts and stroll loads, then they will simply grow to be an excellent and productive three true end result hitter. You will need to know that not each hitter can obtain this and solely a choose few hitters with elite energy and a fantastic eye can put up the right kind of effectivity numbers to be a legit 3 true end result hitter. These guys may not be the very best guys to look at however they get the job completed when completed accurately.