I prefer to suppose I’m fairly tuned in to what’s occurring in baseball every day. I verify the information and the standings repeatedly, and my morning wouldn’t be full with out a fast scan of the leaderboards in all the most important statistical classes. That being so, it’s uncommon that I’ll be caught off guard by a participant’s ERA, or batting common, or WAR. That doesn’t imply it by no means occurs, although, and when it does, I typically really feel compelled to share my shock.

With that introduction as a clue, would you care to guess who leads the Rays in residence runs? , the Rays who’ve extra homers than any workforce within the American League. The Rays who rank second in baseball in runs scored and first in wRC+. The Rays who do all that regardless of taking part in in one of many least hitter-friendly residence ballparks within the recreation. Yeah, these Rays.

It’s not All-Star first baseman Yandy Díaz or rookie sensation Luke Raley. It’s not Wander Franco, or Isaac Paredes, or anybody with the final title Lowe.

I’ll offer you one other trace: Two gamers are literally tied for the workforce lead in lengthy balls, and considered one of them isn’t so onerous to guess. Randy Arozarena hit his sixteenth homer of the season on Sunday, pulling even with the thriller participant for first place, and solely form of ruining the guessing recreation I had deliberate. Then once more, the title and featured picture already gave it away, so it’s time I pull again the facade of this rhetorical machine. No workforce within the American League has extra residence runs than the Rays, and nobody on the Rays has extra residence runs than Jose Siri.

Having you guess the thriller participant may really feel unoriginal within the age of the stainless grid, however I prefer it on this case as a result of it drives residence the purpose that I by no means would’ve guessed Siri was main the Rays in residence runs on the midway level of the season. In 325 journeys to the plate final 12 months, he hit solely seven. Our preseason Depth Charts projections noticed him hitting 17 homers in 120 video games; he’s already at 16 in 52. Moreover, Siri doesn’t have practically sufficient plate appearances to qualify for fee stat leaderboards, nor does he have sufficient residence runs or RBI to look among the many league leaders in any counting stats. You can verify the leaderboards daily with out ever seeing his title.

I used to be additionally stunned by Siri’s energy due to some snap judgments I made about his profile. Final season, he was the third-fastest participant in baseball; his 30.4 ft/s dash pace was behind solely Corbin Carroll and Bubba Thompson. He additionally completed within the 99th percentile in OAA and the Ninety fifth percentile in outfielder soar. Once you see numbers like that from an unranked prospect, it’s simple to categorize him as a glove-first participant and transfer on. In any case, it made excellent sense that the Rays can be searching for one other Kevin Kiermaier sort after they traded for Siri, and he completed the season with 14 stolen bases, 15 OAA, and a 75 wRC+. It’s onerous to say my first impression was unreasonable.

But the reality is that Siri has all the time had energy. In Eric Longenhagen’s first Siri write-up, he praised the younger outfielder for his “above-average uncooked energy” earlier than mentioning something about protection. A couple of years later, in Siri’s remaining prospect analysis right here at FanGraphs, Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel gave his recreation energy and fielding the identical 45/50 grade and his uncooked energy a 55/55. Then, in September 2021, Siri smacked 4 residence runs in 21 video games, good for a 158 wRC+ and .304 remoted energy in his first style of the majors. Swiftly, he didn’t sound like a glove-first heart fielder; all he wanted was a while to find his energy on the main league degree.

Suffice it to say, Siri has performed simply that. The truth is, he’s hitting so many residence runs that his teammates are having hassle maintaining. His own residence runs account for practically 50% of his runs scored and runs batted in. Solely 5 gamers (min. 10 HR) have pushed themselves in for the next proportion of their runs and RBI: Joey Gallo, Jake Burger, Francisco Alvarez, Shohei Ohtani, and Jorge Soler. Something that has to do with runs and RBI isn’t going to be probably the most high-quality evaluation (and it says as a lot in regards to the groups because it does the gamers), besides, that is a powerful group for an aspiring energy hitter to be part of:

Maybe I shouldn’t be stunned to see Tampa Bay turning one other unheralded prospect right into a star, however there’s one thing totally different about Siri. The Rays have a knack for locating and creating All-Stars, however additionally they excel at discovering worth on the margins; at positions like catcher and heart discipline, that always means discovering a terrific defender fairly than an offensive powerhouse.

Certainly, power-hitting heart fielders are few and much between in baseball, they usually’re even fewer and farther between in St. Petersburg, Florida. In 25 years as a serious league franchise, the closest the Rays have come to a slugging heart fielder is B.J. Upton, who had just a few 20-plus homer seasons with the Rays, although his greatest energy season got here the 12 months earlier than he transitioned to heart full-time. General, Upton had a .167 ISO throughout eight years with the membership. In a single season, probably the most energy Tampa Bay ever received from a middle fielder was in 2006, when Rocco Baldelli completed with a .231 ISO in 92 video games.

Throughout 54 participant seasons, 24 totally different heart fielders have taken no less than 150 PA for the Rays in a single 12 months. Solely Upton, Baldelli, Brett Phillips, and Elijah Dukes completed with an ISO above .200 in any particular person season. As of at this time, Siri has an remoted energy of .320. In the meantime, solely Baldelli, Upton, and Gerald Williams hit greater than 15 residence runs in a season as a middle fielder for the Rays; Siri has 16 with 80 video games left to play. He has an affordable likelihood to turn into the primary Rays heart fielder to ever cross the 30-homer threshold.

In an effort to appropriate my preconceived notions about Siri, I sat down to observe some highlights, and it didn’t take lengthy to comprehend that uncooked energy actually isn’t his downside. The 6-foot-2, 175-pound heart fielder’s hardest residence run of the season was hit at practically 114 mph, placing his max exit velocity within the prime 10% of the league. His .495 wOBA on contact ranks thirteenth within the majors (min. 150 PA), and his .484 xwOBA on contact ranks twentieth. The Statcast anticipated metrics may even be underrating his energy as a result of Siri pulls the ball a lot greater than the common hitter; his pull fee is about 7% greater than league common, and his reverse discipline fee is about 7% decrease. The numbers are much more excessive on balls within the air, the place his pull fee is 10% greater than common; his reverse discipline fee is almost 13% decrease. When a batter hits the ball onerous within the air and to his pull facet, he’s going to see good outcomes. That’s precisely why Siri is on tempo to smack 50 homers per 162 video games.

In case you’re in any respect acquainted with this style of FanGraphs article, you realize what’s coming subsequent: It’s extremely unlikely Siri goes to maintain up this tempo. First issues first, he’s working a 29.6% HR/FB. That’s a quantity you solely see from a transcendent energy hitter like Aaron Decide or Giancarlo Stanton. Statcast estimates Siri ought to have hit about 13 residence runs this 12 months, which continues to be spectacular, however not fairly so stunning; he would solely rank fifth on his workforce in homers, and his 24% HR/FB can be nearer to Kyle Schwarber than Decide.

It’s additionally value mentioning that Siri has a surprisingly low Thirty seventh-percentile common exit velocity and Forty first-percentile hard-hit fee this 12 months regardless of his Ninety fifth-percentile barrel fee. This could possibly be proof that he’s taking advantage of his restricted onerous contact by barreling nearly each hard-hit ball he will get, however for a hitter with a lot energy potential, it’s extra possible that he isn’t recording as many hard-hit balls as he might. He swings at a ton of unhealthy pitches, which ends up in poor-quality contact. Batted balls categorized as “weak,” “topped,” and “beneath” account for 73% of his non-barrels. For the common hitter, such poor contact solely makes up 66% of non-barrels. All that hacking additionally means he’s extra more likely to fall behind within the depend, giving him fewer alternatives to crush the baseball. In different phrases, Siri is form of all or nothing; he’s able to nice issues when he’s doing all the things he’s purported to, however he’s additionally liable to name your dad whenever you ask for a reminder to purchase bread. (Siri joke? Verify.)

On a associated notice, only one.7% of Siri’s batted balls have been categorized as “strong” contact this 12 months. The one hitters who’ve made much less strong contact are Andrew Benintendi, Myles Straw, Nick Madrigal, and TJ Friedl. Siri is a totally totally different sort of hitter than any of these guys, so I’m inclined to consider his strong contract fee will normalize with time, and except he improves his plate self-discipline, it’s possible these solid-hit balls will come out of his barrel fee.

I’ve a delicate spot in my coronary heart for any participant who outperforms my expectations. It’s good to be spot-on with my evaluations, nevertheless it’s equally thrilling when a participant proves me mistaken. I made a snap judgment about Siri final season (He appears like a glove-first heart fielder? He should be a glove-first heart fielder!), and with each residence run he hits, he jogs my memory to be a bit of extra cautious the subsequent time I slap that label on a participant. He’ll want to enhance his plate self-discipline if he desires to maintain hitting at a 50-homer tempo, however the energy is unquestionably actual. Siri is to not be neglected.