This function supplies a capsule take a look at three horses who’re heating up on the Triple Crown path and three horses whose possibilities for the 2024 Kentucky Derby Offered by Woodford Reserve should not fairly as sturdy as they had been a couple of weeks in the past.

On this third version of this weblog for the 2024 run for the roses, the main focus is on the important thing Derby prep races on Feb. 3 in addition to a couple of different promising 3-year-olds from current weeks.

This weblog will turn out to be extra constant within the coming weeks main into the Could 4 Kentucky Derby with a gentle slate of qualifying factors races on the horizon.

Be aware: Essentially the most spectacular winner from Feb. 3, Nysos, is ineligible for the Kentucky Derby as a result of his coach, Bob Baffert, is banned by Churchill Downs within the wake of Media Spirit’s disqualification for a drugs violation within the 2021 Kentucky Derby. See extra beneath within the “Of Be aware” part underneath the Three Cooling Down.

THREE HEATING UP

1. Mystik Dan

I attempted to make a case for every of the winners of the Kentucky Derby factors races for the highest spot, however regardless of a couple of lingering questions I stored coming again to runaway Southwest Stakes victor Mystik Dan. The primary cause is straightforward: he ran quick. Quick is vital – important, really – for Kentucky Derby hopefuls, and Mystik Dan’s profitable Equibase Pace Determine (110), Beyer Pace Determine (101), and Brisnet velocity ranking (101) for the Southwest towered over Holy Bull Stakes winner Hades and Withers Stakes winner Uncle Heavy. He additionally beat the deepest group, on paper, by eight lengths and completed effectively with a ultimate sixteenth of a mile in 5.93 seconds in keeping with Equibase. Positive, the breakout stakes win got here on a muddy monitor at Oaklawn Park after an excellent rail-skimming journey, however Mystik Dan has one other quick race on his résumé, his maiden win on Nov. 12, 2023, and he’s within the succesful palms of Kenny McPeek, who gained the 2022 Belmont Stakes with Sarava and the 2020 Preakness Stakes with Swiss Skydiver. His subsequent begin will most definitely be the Arkansas Derby on March 30 at Oaklawn and I anticipate the Goldencents colt to run effectively.

2. Hades

Whereas the velocity figures don’t paint an particularly rosy image, Hades seemed champion Fierceness within the eyeball coming into the stretch of the Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park and put him away after setting the tempo within the 1 1/16-mile race. The Superior Slew gelding then had sufficient stamina in reserve to fend off a late rally from Home Product to prevail by two lengths in his stakes debut. A $130,000 buy as a 2-year-old on the 2023 OBS Spring sale by coach Joe Orseno on behalf of householders D. J. Secure and Robert Cotran, Hades improved to a few wins in as many begins. “I purchased him with some excessive expectations, and he lived as much as them,” Orseno mentioned after Hades aced the category check within the Holy Bull. Hades earned a 95 Equibase Pace Determine, a 90 Beyer Pace Determine, and a 93 Brisnet ranking, that are stable however unspectacular figures, and his ultimate five-sixteenths of a mile in :31.82 likewise doesn’t encourage. That mentioned, he has solely three begins underneath his belt and seemed fairly inexperienced within the stretch Saturday at Gulfstream Park, so there’s room for each psychological and bodily enchancment within the coming weeks. He might make his subsequent begin in both the Fountain of Youth Stakes on March 2 or Florida Derby on March 30, and the way a lot Hades improves very probably will decide if he’s a bona-fide Kentucky Derby contender or not.

3. Uncle Heavy

It was a reasonably even between Hades and Uncle Heavy when evaluating these two for the second and third slots this week, however defeating Fierceness gave the previous the slight edge. One benefit Uncle Heavy may need is stamina as he’s now 2-for-2 in two-turn races and posted a career-high 95 Equibase Pace Determine, 84 Beyer Pace Determine, and 94 Brisnet ranking is his first attempt at 1 1/8 miles within the Withers Stakes at Aqueduct. The Social Inclusion colt closed resolutely to nip front-running El Grande O by a nostril at 9.30-1 odds on a muddy (sealed) foremost monitor. Mentioned coach Butch Reid: “I’ve at all times felt all together with this horse, the farther the higher. He actually proved that in the present day.” Alongside these traces, Uncle Heavy was fairly extensive all through the race, so one might argue the win was higher than it seems on paper. My foremost considerations with Uncle Heavy are the extent of competitors within the Withers – the New York Derby preps have a tendency to draw larger high quality competitors as winter turns to spring – and his ultimate furlong in :13.04 and three-eighths of a mile in :38.85, which had been simply OK … though the “off” monitor might have performed a job in that. Uncle Heavy is at the very least actually attention-grabbing as a Derby prospect and one to maintain tabs on. My hunch is I is perhaps underselling him a bit at this level.

Additionally-eligible: A few maiden winners from January dazzled on the monitor: Converse Simple and Corridor of Fame. Converse Simple gained his profession debut for coach Todd Pletcher and house owners Siena Farm and WinStar Farm Jan. 27 at Gulfstream Park. The bay Structure colt pressed the tempo and powered to a 1 ¾-length win in a victory that earned a 92 Equibase Pace Determine and an attention-grabbing 100 Beyer Pace Determine. He seems like a quick racehorse out of Grade 1-placed Enjoyable, by Harlan’s Vacation. … Likewise, Corridor of Fame turned heads with a ten ¼-length romp Feb. 20 at Truthful Grounds in his second profession begin for Corridor of Fame coach Steve Asmussen. The Gun Runner colt earned a 97 Equibase Pace Determine and a 94 Beyer Pace Determine for the win at 1 1/16 miles after working second in a dash in his November debut at Churchill Downs.

THREE COOLING DOWN

1. Fierceness

Look, it’s truthful to say Fierceness seemed like he wanted a race when he got here up empty coming into the stretch of the Holy Bull Stakes in his return from a three-month layoff. I agree, that was not a completely cranked Fierceness. However coming into the race, Fierceness seemed just like the quickest 3-year-old dust horse on the planet on paper and he towered over the opposite six starters on this subject because the 1-5 favourite. He’s now disillusioned as an odds-on favourite in two of his 4 profession races. The expertise is certainly there, however to this point he’s proven each flashes of brilliance and inconsistency. I anticipated the 6 ¼-length winner of the 2023 FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Offered by Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance to go away the opposition reeling in his wake on the prime of the Gulfstream stretch monitoring a half-mile in a leisurely :50.53. As an alternative, he completed 3 ½ lengths behind pacesetter Hades, who chugged dwelling his ultimate sixteenth of a mile in 6.79 seconds. The excellent news is Fierceness reportedly got here out of the race in good order and we all know there are higher days forward for the Metropolis of Mild colt, however his standing because the early Kentucky Derby favourite took a success within the Holy Bull.

2. Otto the Conqueror

I had my doubts about Otto the Conqueror after he ran his profitable streak to a few with a three-quarter-length rating within the Remington Springboard Mile Stakes as a result of that first stakes win got here on a muddy monitor, he completed slowly, and his velocity figures took a step again when stretching out in distance. It appeared that the muddy monitor at Oaklawn Park for the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes ought to go well with the Road Sense colt given he had gained on the same floor in his earlier race, however the pacesetter light badly when headed and completed 18 ¼ lengths behind winner Mystik Dan. I nonetheless assume Otto the Conqueror is a very nice 3-year-old, however my guess is he is perhaps higher suited to sprinting. He’s price giving one other shot on the Derby path, for positive, particularly to see what he can do in a two-turn race on a quick monitor. However the Southwest was a step within the fallacious course.

3. Otello

I thought of Carbone for the ultimate spot right here however his boring effort within the Southwest Stakes was his first attempt on an “off” monitor, so I believed he deserved a mulligan. As for Otello, I used to be fairly excessive on him coming into the Holy Bull Stakes regardless of uninspiring velocity figures as a result of I favored what I noticed visually in each his November debut win and half-length rating within the Mucho Macho Man Stakes Jan. 1 for coach Christophe Clement. The well-bred Curlin colt simply by no means actually confirmed a lot within the Holy Bull as he was by no means a risk from begin to end whereas working sixth, overwhelmed by 6 ¾ lengths. With solely three begins, there’s clearly room for enchancment within the coming weeks for Otello however I hoped he would possibly rise to the extent of the competitors within the Holy Bull and it simply didn’t occur.

Of Be aware: Horses educated by Bob Baffert ineligible to accrue Kentucky Derby qualifying factors or to compete within the first jewel of the Triple Crown whereas underneath his care as a part of a ban instituted by Churchill Downs within the wake of Medina Spirit’s disqualification for a drugs violation within the 2021 Kentucky Derby. To ensure that horses educated by Baffert to turn out to be eligible for the Kentucky Derby, they wanted to be transferred to a coach eligible to compete within the race by Feb. 1. None of Baffert’s runners had been moved to different barns – thus the 3-year-olds in his care is not going to compete within the 2024 Kentucky Derby (or Longines Kentucky Oaks, for that matter, concerning the fillies). Final weekend’s runaway Robert B. Lewis Stakes winner Nysos was probably the most spectacular winner, by an eighth pole, of a Kentucky Derby prep race final weekend, however he should goal the Preakness Stakes or the Belmont Stakes Offered by NYRA Bets if he’s going to take dwelling a trophy on this yr’s Triple Crown. Based mostly on the 105 Beyer Pace Determine he earned for the Lewis, the best Beyer for 3-year-old in 2024, Nysos can be very robust within the Preakness. … Grade 1 winner Locked, third within the 2023 FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Offered by TAA, will miss a deliberate begin within the Sam F. Davis Stakes Feb. 10 at Tampa Bay Downs after Day by day Racing Type reported the Todd Pletcher trainee missed a exercise with a fever.