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The Grade 1, $750,000 Cigar Mile Handicap brings a full subject of 12 collectively operating the one-turn mile journey at Aqueduct. Three of the group might be returning on 4 weeks relaxation after competing in Breeders’ Cup races, and all three had been well-beaten however match on the stage primarily based on high races previous to that.
Hoist the Gold is likely one of the trio, having gained the Grade 2 Stoll Keenon Ogden Phoenix Stakes in October previous to a sixth-place effort within the Qatar Racing Breeders’ Cup Dash. Three Method completed eighth within the Qatar Racing Breeders’ Cup Dash after a victory within the Grade 2 John A. Nerud Stakes two races prior. Senor Buscador gained the Grade 2 San Diego Handicap in July and most not too long ago was seventh within the Longines Breeders’ Cup Traditional. Others convey high credentials into the race, notably a trio that simply completed first, second, and third within the Grade 2 Forty Niner Stakes at this distance and at Aqueduct on Oct. 28. Within the Forty Niner, beforehand often called the Kelso Handicap, Everso Mischievous was victorious by a half-length over Dr Ardito, with Accretive one other nostril behind in third. Among the many others, Coastal Mission has gained eight of 9 races this 12 months together with six in a row, although none was a graded stakes, the newest being within the Sam Huff West Virginia Breeders’ Traditional Stakes. Offaly Cool gained the M.P. Ballezzi Appreciation Mile Stakes in mid-October and makes an attempt to run as properly in his first graded stakes strive. Excessive Oak earned his finest inserting in a stakes race this 12 months when second within the Grade 3 Daring Ruler Stakes close to the tip of October and in addition gained the Grade 2 Saratoga Particular Stakes Offered by Miller Lite in 2021 as a 2-year-old. Cascais has solely run 3 times however makes his second begin following a wonderful second-place end after greater than 11 months off for Chad Brown, who additionally saddles Accretive and Dr Ardito. Pipeline has a few within the cash finishes in stakes races in his profession, most not too long ago when third within the Grade 1 Forego Stakes in the summertime of 2022, however he has not been aggressive in three races this 12 months. Fort Chaos rounds out the sphere, getting into the race off an allowance-level win and operating in a stakes race for the primary time.
Fundamental win contenders:
Accretive will get slight desire among the many high three finishers within the Forty Niner due to a “widespread race” handicapping principle which has had a great deal of success over time. This principle states that when two or three horses end shut collectively in a earlier race, usually their positions might be reversed the subsequent time they meet. This principle has a whole lot of worth in handicapping this 12 months’s Cigar Mile, as a result of though he was third, overwhelmed a half-length on the end line, Accretive may need gained the Forty Niner if not for what occurred at first. When the gates opened, Accretive broke only a bit to his proper and a bit slowly and virtually veered into the horse simply outdoors of him. Jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. needed to appropriate Accretive to his left, and in doing so the horse misplaced a few lengths. Discovering himself 4 lengths again after a half-mile, as in comparison with inside a half-length in his two victories this 12 months, Accretive was then additionally pressured to go about 5 paths broad on the far flip. However, Accretive fought gamely to be inside a half-length of the lead with yards to go, however that early expenditure of power value him the wanted kick, a lot in order that he was handed late and misplaced second place by a nostril. Previous to the Forty Niner, Accretive earned a career-best 110 Equibase Pace Determine when overwhelmed only a size and a half by Cody’s Want within the Grade 2 Vosburgh Stakes. Contemplating Cody’s Want placed on a present to win the Huge Ass Followers Breeders’ Cup Filth Mile in his subsequent begin after the Vosburgh, we are able to conclude Accretive goes to run the very best race of his profession (with a clear begin) and often is the one to beat on this 12 months’s Cigar Mile Handicap.
Dr Ardito discovered himself 11 lengths behind the early chief after a half-mile of the Forty Niner had been run, and 10 lengths behind eventual winner Everso Mischievous. Nonetheless, jockey Manny Franco, who has now ridden the horse in 11 of his 12 profession begins, acquired Dr Ardito to select up the tempo on the far flip, gaining floor on the chief at that stage of the race. After operating 5 paths broad on that flip, Dr Ardito put in a visually spectacular late run to come back up only a half-length quick, incomes a 103 pace determine only one level shy of the winner. Dr Ardito actually loves the Aqueduct important monitor, the place he has gained 5 of seven races and has completed second in two others, the quickest of which earned a 107 Equibase Pace Determine, which is greater than the career-best 104 determine Everso Mischievous earned in his most up-to-date race and never removed from the Accretive’s 110 finest determine. Actually, if the tempo is quick because it was within the Forty Niner. Dr Ardito has an opportunity to run previous the sphere and win.
There’s no knocking Everso Mischievous, who has gained 4 of six races and completed second within the different two. His Equibase Pace Figures have improved persistently all season, from 97 in June to 98 in August, after which to 99 in September earlier than a 104 for profitable the Forty Niner. In that race, Everso Mischievous moved up from second and engaged in a three-horse battle on the flip earlier than rising with a half-length margin and holding the identical margin to the end line. As a 3-year-old, Everso Mischievous nonetheless has enhancing to do, and as such has each proper to win his second graded stakes in a row.
The remainder of the sphere (with finest Equibase Pace Determine): Cascais (103), Fort Chaos (102), Coastal Mission (114), Excessive Oak (93), Hoist the Gold (111), Offaly Cool (111), Pipeline (105), Senor Buscador (115), and Three Method (110).
Win Contenders, in desire order:
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