Welcome to 2024 Kentucky Derby Prospect Profiles, the place we’ll have a look every week at a latest winner on the Triple Crown path, often from the Highway to the Kentucky Derby schedule from which the racehorses earn factors towards qualifying.

The 1 ¼-mile Kentucky Derby Offered by Woodford Reserve will probably be held Might 4, 2024, at Churchill Downs.

This week, we’ll take a better take a look at Fierceness, winner of the $1,820,000 FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile offered by Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance on Nov. 3 at Santa Anita Park.

Fierceness earned 30 factors towards qualifying for the 2024 Kentucky Derby with that win and moved into first place on the newest Highway to the Kentucky Derby leaderboard.

Racing Résumé: Fierceness bounced again from a disappointing seventh-place end, crushed by 20 ¼ lengths within the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes, with some of the dominant performances of the weekend on the 2023 Breeders’ Cup World Championships.

The Metropolis of Mild colt surged away to a 6 ¼-length romp within the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in a race that carefully resembled an 11 ¼-length runaway win in his profession debut Aug. 25 at Saratoga Race Course that had racing followers on the observe and on social media buzzing.

It’s laborious to pinpoint precisely why Fierceness ran so poorly within the Champagne Stakes, though a nasty begin actually didn’t assist his probabilities, however he might be a future celebrity if the standard on show in his debut and on the Breeders’ Cup is what we get from Fierceness shifting ahead.

Pace Figures: A part of the premise for the thrill surrounding Fierceness following his debut was the 95 Beyer Pace Determine and the 7 ¼ quantity on the Ragozin Sheets (decrease is healthier) he earned for the three-quarter-mile dash. He earned a stable 101 Equibase Pace Determine, however each the Beyer and Ragozin numbers had been distinctive for a profession debut.

Clearly, little or no went proper within the Champagne and his pace figures fell off a cliff, however the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile was a significant soar ahead throughout the entire aforementioned pace figures: 105 Beyer, 113 Equibase, and a 4 ¾ Ragozin determine. Fierceness is a quick racehorse who delivered a very quick race on Nov. 3 at Santa Anita.

Working Fashion: Tactical pace is a significant asset for racehorses concentrating on the Kentucky Derby. Fierceness gained his debut main from begin to end and rated simply in behind pacesetter Common Accomplice within the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He was a few half-length again by means of a half-mile and took command approaching the stretch on the ultimate flip. In recent times, tactical pace has been more and more vital within the first jewel of the Triple Crown, though each Wealthy Strike in 2022 and Mage in 2023 rallied from off the tempo to win the Kentucky Derby.

Connections: Repole Steady owns and bred Fierceness. Mike Repole made his fortune when he offered his firm Glaceau, maker of Vitaminwater and Smartwater, to Coca-Cola for $4.1 billion in Might 2007. He subsequently co-founded BODYARMOR Sports activities Drink, which he additionally offered in November 2021 to Coca-Cola for a reported $5.6 billion. Repole Steady additionally gained the Juvenile in 2010 with Uncle Mo and in 2022 with Forte, the latter in partnership with St. Elias Steady. Repole and St. Elias additionally teamed to win the 2019 Breeders’ Cup Traditional with Vino Rosso.

Repole has by no means gained the Kentucky Derby, though he had an enormous probability with Forte in 2022 earlier than he was scratched the morning of the race with a hoof bruise.

Corridor of Fame coach Todd Pletcher is a seven-time Eclipse Award winner as excellent coach with six wins in U.S. Triple Crown races to his credit score. He gained the Kentucky Derby with Tremendous Saver in 2010 and with All the time Dreaming in 2017.

4-time Eclipse Award winner Irad Ortiz Jr. rode Fierceness in his first two begins and Corridor of Famer John Velazquez picked up the mount on the bay colt for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Ortiz has by no means completed within the prime three within the Kentucky Derby; Velazquez gained the Derby in 2011 with Animal Kingdom, 2017 on All the time Dreaming, and in 2020 aboard Genuine.

Pedigree Notes: Fierceness is from the second crop of Metropolis of Mild, winner of the 2018 Breeders’ Cup Dust Mile and the $9 million Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes in 2019. Metropolis of Mild, by High quality Highway, boasted an abundance of pace and the power to hold it round two turns, very like Fierceness, who’s by far his finest runner to this point.

Repole bred Fierceness out of his homebred Nonna Bella, by Repole’s a number of Grade 1 winner Keep Thirsty. Nonna Bella gained two of 5 races with one win coming at 6 ½ furlongs and the opposite at seven furlongs, and she or he is a half-sister (identical dam [mother], totally different sire [father]) to Grade 1 winner and sire Outwork.

Fierceness shined in his two-turn debut and ran the quickest race of his profession, however from a pedigree standpoint there are some issues about whether or not or not he’ll be capable to carry that pace 1 ¼ miles on the primary Saturday in Might.

Derby Potential: We printed an fascinating BloodHorse characteristic exploring the truth that solely two horses have ever gained the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and gone on to win the Kentucky Derby the next spring: Road Sense in 2006-’07 and Nyquist in 2015-’16. It’s a great learn full of plenty of particulars and feedback from skilled Triple Crown trainers, however the simple reply is solely that it’s simply so laborious to win a Kentucky Derby.

The winner should to be peaking on the excellent time, keep away from bother within the race, get the fitting tempo setup, and have the expertise to run quick and the stamina to run 1 ¼ miles. Because it pertains to the Juvenile winner, it’s simply robust to foretell how a 2-year-old will mature with day without work between seasons after which progress as a 3-year-old as soon as coaching begins to ramp up for the next yr’s Kentucky Derby path.

The important thing issue, in fact, is expertise, and Fierceness seems to have that in spades. However that’s simply a place to begin. The colt should keep sound and wholesome, enhance mentally and bodily, and construct the inspiration to run a monster race at a 1 ¼-mile distance he will probably be making an attempt for the primary time in entrance of 150,000 followers on the primary Saturday in Might. Let’s simply say the chances are stacked towards Fierceness regardless of how good he’s, even when he proves to be distinctive.