One of many good issues in regards to the playoffs is that there’s typically only one sport taking place at a time. Don’t get me flawed. I like a summer season day with a full slate of 15 video games, however you’re the place your consideration is, and there’s an excessive amount of baseball taking place in any at some point for us to be current for all of it. When the entire of the baseball world will get compressed down to 1 high-stakes sport, you catch little issues that may in any other case have gone unnoticed.

In the course of the NLCS, I seen a little bit factor about Kevin Ginkel. It was about how he holds runners on second base, and man, does he maintain runners on second base. Right here’s the pitch that caught my consideration:

This occurred throughout a reasonably high-leverage second. It’s the eighth inning of Recreation 4 of the NLCS. The Phillies are up two runs with Nick Castellanos on the plate. That potential insurance coverage run on second base feels big within the second. (And it’ll become big. Within the backside of the inning, the Diamondbacks will rating three runs and take the lead. If Alec Bohm comes round to attain right here, this sport seemingly leads to additional innings.) Within the midst of all this drama, at roughly the velocity of sunshine, Ginkel cranks his head all the best way round like an owl. Right here’s a close-up:

It’s so fast! After which he simply throws a pitch like nothing occurred! Take a look at his hair, flying round so wild and free. Ginkel is throwing high-leverage innings within the playoffs, however he’s additionally starring in his personal shampoo business. When I attempt to visualize the journey his hair takes, what involves thoughts is a type of Sarah Langs win likelihood graphs. It’s quiet at first, after which all hell breaks free:

Wheee certainly.

My curiosity was piqued. I began watching all of the pitches Ginkel threw when he had a runner on second base or runners on first and second, any scenario the place his consideration could be centered on the runner on second.

It seems that this Exorcist-adjacent head flip was not an anomaly. Ginkel pays extraordinarily shut consideration to the runner at second base. When there are runners on base, the pitch clock stretches to twenty seconds, and Ginkel spends roughly 19 of them simply staring down the runner on second. Not solely that, however he makes use of each trick within the e book in an effort to hold the runner off stability. He always mixes up his timing. Generally he’ll begin his supply whereas he’s nonetheless trying on the runner, however different occasions he’ll maintain the ball without end after which pitch with out trying on the runner in any respect. These two pitches are from the identical plate look within the Wild Card Collection towards the Brewers:

That alone would make Ginkel arduous to time up, however he mixes in much more strikes. He’ll fast pitch. He’ll gradual pitch. He’ll chase the runner again to the bag with an inside transfer. He’ll take two lengthy appears to be like on the runner, then the subsequent time, he’ll look like he’s going to do the very same factor, however as an alternative, when he turns again to the plate, he’ll maintain the ball for lengthy sufficient that it looks like he’s going to show again to the runner:

And naturally, along with all of these strikes and variations of them, he’ll do the transfer that impressed this line of investigation within the first place: the Kevin Ginkel Snakes Alive Tremendous Swivel (trademark pending):

As enjoyable as that is, it raises an vital query: Does the Tremendous Swivel and its myriad counterparts truly work?

If Ginkel’s intent is to carry the runner at second shut sufficient that they will’t rating on a single, it’s not working. He allowed two singles on this scenario throughout the common season, and each occasions the runner on second scored with out even drawing a throw. When Ginkel allowed a single to Mark Canha throughout the Wild Card Collection, Christian Yelich didn’t rating from second, however solely as a result of he needed to wait and ensure the ball wasn’t caught.

If Ginkel is doing this to ensure that runners aren’t in a position to steal third, then his success price is a little bit tougher to guage. He allowed simply one steal of third all season, and since the third baseman didn’t hassle to cowl the bag on the play, it’s inconceivable to know whether or not the runner would have been secure or out had there been a throw.

There’s one different issue at play, and it’s the largest one. Ginkel hasn’t pitched fairly as properly with a runner on second (or runners on first and second). It might simply be noise. Pitchers tends to carry out worse with runners in scoring place, and in Ginkel’s case, we’re solely speaking a few pattern of 40 plate appearances and 168 pitches. His common season strand price was only a hair under league common, and it’s a pleasant spherical 100% within the playoffs. Nonetheless, the adjustments are fairly excessive. When nobody is on base, Ginkel hits the strike zone 45.6% of the time, properly under the massive league common of 49.1%. When there’s a runner on second (or runners on first and second), that quantity drops to 38%, a a lot, a lot larger drop from the foremost league common of 47.8%. In truth, there have been 290 pitchers who threw at the least 150 pitches in that scenario this season, and Ginkel’s 38% in-zone price ranks 285th. Ginkel’s in-zone price falls 7.6 proportion factors, whereas the common pitcher’s falls 1.3 factors.

It’s arduous to understand how a lot of the rise in pitches outdoors the zone is because of a scarcity of command and the way a lot is by design. For essentially the most half, Ginkel offsets the decrease in-zone price by incomes extra swinging strikes. His chase price improves from 30.9% to 37.6%, and his whiff price improves from 21.1% to 31.0%. Perhaps all of this subterfuge is affecting the batter, or perhaps Ginkel is simply making an attempt to maintain the ball out of the strike zone, and due to this fact out of play. In spite of everything, with a runner on second or runners on first and second, a stroll is way much less dangerous than a single.

Nonetheless, the tip result’s that Ginkel is pitching from behind extra typically. Total, 25.7% of Ginkel’s pitches come when he’s behind within the depend, a bit higher than the massive league common of 26.5%. However when there’s a runner on second to fret about, Ginkel is at 28.8%, a bit worse than the league common of 28.1%. And naturally, falling behind results in worse outcomes:

With runners to fret about, his stroll price rises and his strikeout price falls. His exit velocity goes up a tick, and his run worth per 100 pitches plummets. In each column of the desk above, Ginkel’s efficiency drop-off was larger than the foremost league common drop-off. Right here’s a breakdown of the 2 differentials:

Once more, we’re speaking a few tiny pattern, but when I labored for the Diamondbacks, I would inform Ginkel that he doesn’t want to fret a lot about holding the runner on second. It’s unclear whether or not his strikes are preserving runners from stealing third, however they undoubtedly aren’t preserving them from scoring on a single. Even when they had been, it wouldn’t be value risking an general drop in efficiency. Principally, I’d inform Ginkel what each coach tells their younger pitchers: give attention to the particular person on the plate.

However right here’s the factor: I don’t work for the Diamondbacks. And whereas I don’t want for Kevin Ginkel to fail, I do hope that he continues to whip his hair backwards and forwards, as a result of it brings me pleasure. Perhaps he can chill out his coverage of fixed vigilance just a bit bit, however I hope he nonetheless takes a fast peek on the runner each from time to time.