The New Orleans path to the Kentucky Derby Offered by Woodford Reserve continues Saturday with the 1 1/16-mile Lecomte Stakes, the second of 4 qualifying races at Honest Grounds for 3-year-olds concentrating on the 2024 run for the roses.

Monitor Phantom gained the Gun Runner Stakes Dec. 23 within the first of the Honest Grounds factors races and the sequence will proceed after the Lecomte with the $400,000 Risen Star Stakes Feb. 17 at 1 1/8 miles and the $1 million, 1 3/16-mile Louisiana Derby March 23.

The Lecomte Stakes is a Grade 3 race that provides the winner 20 factors towards Kentucky Derby qualifying in addition to $120,000 of the $200,000 purse. The second- by means of fifth-place finishers will earn 10, six, 4, and two factors, respectively, towards qualifying for the Kentucky Derby.

The Lecomte Stakes is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET and will probably be televised on FanDuel TV.

Listed here are 5 questions that should be answered within the 2024 Lecomte Stakes …

1. Will the actual Nash please step ahead? After a second-place end in his profession debut, #2 Nash stampeded to a front-running, 10 ¼-length romp in 1 1/16-mile maiden particular weight race on Nov. 12, 2023, at Churchill Downs that was as dominant visually because it was on paper. He earned a 101 Equibase Pace Determine and a 97 Beyer Pace Determine. The latter is eight factors quicker than anybody else on this eight-horse area for the Lecomte has ever run. However the Godolphin homebred Medaglia d’Oro colt dissatisfied because the odds-on favourite within the Gun Runner Stakes and completed three lengths behind winner #7 Monitor Phantom. Is the Gun Runner model the actual Nash or will the 5-2 second selection on the morning line enhance upon his stakes debut and run one other monster race like he did in November at Churchill? My hunch is he fires his finest shot.

2. Does the identical tempo state of affairs from the Gun Runner Stakes repeat within the Lecomte? The quick reply is, it positive appears that means. Winner Monitor Phantom pressed #1 Subsequent Degree by means of a powerful half-mile in :46.93 and put him away with ease en path to a transparent lead in early stretch. From there, he was a snug winner. Absent another apparent pace horses – #8 Superior Highway has some tactical pace however will probably be rerouted to a unique race — except Florent Geroux opts to ship Nash or longshot #3 Tizzy Indy flashes shocking early pace, anticipate to see 9-5 morning-line favourite Monitor Phantom tuck in behind Subsequent Degree for one more dream journey.

3. Will Can Group deal with the floor change again to dust? #4 Can Group holds a category edge on this area as the one graded stakes winner within the bunch, however the actuality is his finest races thus far, together with his win within the Grade 2 Fort & Key Bourbon Stakes, got here on the grass. The Good Samaritan colt has not raced since closing for fourth, overwhelmed by solely two lengths, within the $920,000 Prevagen Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. He completed third twice in as many begins on dust. Whereas he did present important enchancment with the change to turf, Can Group additionally appeared to relish the added distance and his pedigree wouldn’t appear to hinder the possibilities he may make the transition again to dust. He’s an attention-grabbing contender at 6-1 on the morning line.

4. Are any of the longshots able to operating a giant race at a giant worth? #3 Tizzy Indy (30-1) from the barn of upset-specialist Keith Desormeaux appears like one to make use of to boost your unique bets. Desormeaux and jockey James Graham have gained at a 16% clip during the last two years for a small revenue. Tizzy Indy returns to dust, which I consider is his most popular floor, after ending a distant third on grass. Previous to that, he gained a one-mile maiden race and completed second in a 1 1/16-mile allowance race, each on dust at Churchill Downs. He has a little bit of tactical pace, so he ought to be capable of price simply behind Subsequent Degree (additionally educated by Keith Desormeaux) and Monitor Phantom and get first bounce on the deep closers.

5. How legit is Ethan Vitality? Judging by a few of the evaluation I’ve learn, #5 Ethan Vitality appears to be the hype horse within the Lecomte coming off a dominant 5 ¼-length romp Dec. 23 on this observe and at this distance. Luis Saez ships in for the mount for a number of Eclipse Award-winning coach Brad Cox, a mix that has gained at 37% in 2023-’24 and has been particularly worthwhile at Honest Grounds. There may be a lot to love, however improvement in 3-year-olds will not be all the time linear and the category check right here in a graded stakes popping out of a maiden race is a serious hurdle. I believe he’ll get guess right down to the 7-2 to 3-1 vary, and at that worth I desire others.

Mike’s Trifecta: 1. Nash, 2. Monitor Phantom, 3. Tizzy Indy