Gulfstream Park kicks off its three-race prep collection for the 2024 Kentucky Derby Offered by Woodford Reserve this Saturday, Feb. 3, with the $250,000 Holy Bull Stakes. Usually, the Holy Bull serves because the coming-out get together for extremely regarded 3-year-old Derby prospects primarily based in south Florida, ones who’ve taken a while off throughout the winter after turning heads as 2-year-olds and are able to resume their hopeful path to Triple Crown glory.

Such is the case this yr, as Saturday’s Grade 3 tilt marks the sophomore debut of Fierceness (#7), who was voted champion 2-year-old male of 2023 primarily based on his dominant 6 ¼-length win within the FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Offered by TAA final November.

The 1 1/16-mile Holy Bull drew a subject of eight contenders, 4 of them popping out of Gulfstream Park’s Mucho Macho Man Stakes held on Jan. 1. The Holy Bull shall be televised on CNBC and FanDuel TV and streamed on Peacock, and has a scheduled publish time of 5:48 p.m. ET.

On paper, this race shapes up as Fierceness’ to lose assuming he is ready to choose up the place he left off in his first begin after three months. After all, something can occur in horse racing, so with that in thoughts, listed below are 5 questions on this group of Derby prospects that may compete for a complete of 42 qualifying factors distributed on a 20-10-6-4-2 scale.

1. Can Fierceness construct on his championship type and lead his division for one more yr?

Final fall’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile was undoubtedly one of many excessive factors of the two-day World Championships, as Fierceness outran his inflated 16.50-1 odds and a high quality subject of eight opponents by a rustic mile. The Metropolis of Gentle colt had been one of many buzz horses of the Saratoga meet after successful his debut by 11 ¼ lengths however misplaced lots of that luster when he flopped because the odds-on chalk within the Champagne Stakes. The Champagne was held within the slop at Aqueduct and round one flip; after lunging initially, Fierceness was by no means an element. However did he ever present a brand new gear within the Juvenile when stretching out barely and trying two turns! His ultimate time within the 1 1/16-mile race of 1:41.90 was greater than a second quicker than Forte’s within the 2022 Juvenile at Keeneland, and that colt – co-owned by Fierceness’ proprietor Mike Repole and likewise from Todd Pletcher’s barn – got here again for his 3-year-old season within the early months of 2023 to firmly set up his place atop the factors standings for the Kentucky Derby, solely to be scratched the morning of the primary jewel of the Triple Crown.

Regardless of having a much less spectacular 2-year-old file than his now-retired stablemate, I might argue that Fierceness is definitely the extra thrilling long-term prospect primarily based on his brilliance within the Juvenile … because it stands at this time. Which means the strain is on for a rousing comeback win within the Holy Bull in opposition to a suspect subject. Primarily based on Pletcher’s feedback about Fierceness’ coaching over the previous weeks, it will be a significant shock if he didn’t stay as much as expectations.

2. Which, if any, of the Mucho Macho Man runners can pull the upset?

Otello (#3) received the Mucho Macho Man Stakes by angling out from a ground-saving place and unleashing a sustained rally that propelled him simply previous First World Battle on the end line. Held at Gulfstream’s one-turn mile configuration, the Mucho Macho Man was an thrilling race, however velocity figures assigned to the runners had been pedestrian. Sea Streak (#8), who completed an in depth third after main briefly within the stretch, joins Otello within the Holy Bull subject together with fourth-place Inveigled (#2) and fifth-place No Extra Time (#5), though No Extra Time will reportedly be re-routed to the Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs subsequent weekend. It’s laborious to see any of those entrants toppling Fierceness if that colt is able to hearth in his return. Otello and Inveigled each completed properly within the Mucho Macho Man, and the previous, particularly, has a pedigree that screams out “give me a route of floor” as a son of Curlin and out of a dam in Isabella Sings who received six stakes races going two turns. Nonetheless, that bloodline additionally suggests Otello might ultimately grow to be higher on turf. Except Otello takes a gargantuan leap in development on Saturday, he figures extra as a late-running exacta filler behind Fierceness, who may get away from this subject on the high of Gulfstream’s stretch if John Velazquez pushes the button on the proper time.

3. Can any of the three different Holy Bull starters crash the get together? The remaining contenders on this Derby prep are Hades (#1), a domestically primarily based runner who’s 2-for-2 on this observe and can stretch out in distance; Dancing Groom (#4), a colt educated by Gulfstream mainstay Antonio Sano who nonetheless shall be making his first begin on the observe; and Home Product (#6), a product of the uber-successful owner-trainer combo of Klaravich Stables and Chad Brown. Each Dancing Groom and Home Product have graded stakes expertise: the previous ran on late to complete a distant third within the Champagne Stakes final October however then fizzled when sixth of eight within the Kentucky Jockey Membership Stakes, whereas the latter drained within the stretch of his stakes debut final December and completed seventh within the Remsen Stakes. Sano and Brown are making gear modifications with their prices for the Holy Bull: Dancing Groom will add blinkers, whereas Home Product can have them eliminated.

From that pair, Home Product holds the extra intrigue for me as he has made his previous two begins at 1 1/8 miles and simply received a maiden at Aqueduct earlier than his Remsen outing. Hades is essentially the most promising member of the trio for my part, nonetheless, primarily based on a considerable soar in velocity figures from his debut (a maiden win in a dash again in early December) to begin two (an eight-length romp in a seven-furlong Gulfstream allowance for Florida-breds on Dec. 31). Hades flashed good early velocity in his allowance win and has a courageous rider in Paco Lopez. Which results in …

4. How will the tempo situation affect the ultimate end result?

I envision Lopez being aggressive with Hades breaking out of the primary publish place and sending his mount to contest the tempo. He must be joined by Inveigled. If these two are outstanding early, the race ought to arrange completely for John Velazquez and Fierceness. Offered a clear break, the Corridor of Fame jockey ought to have the ability to use a few of Fierceness’ tactical velocity to maneuver over and save floor by means of the primary flip sitting in second or third, after which get him in stalking place by means of the backstretch whereas assessing the clock and letting the early velocity dictate when to make a bid for the lead.

5. Is the 150^th winner of the Kentucky Derby entered on this race? Two Holy Bull winners educated on to put on the garland of roses on Derby day: Go for Gin in 1994 and the nice Barbaro in 2006. Let me reemphasize my esteem for Fierceness’ expertise and potential to enhance – his triumph within the BC Juvenile was very, very spectacular, and he’s racing for connections that dedicate a lot time, power, and cash towards successful Triple Crown races. I predict a number of extra stakes victories shall be added to Fierceness’ résumé within the months to come back, beginning on Saturday, however I don’t see him, nor every other Holy Bull runner, reaching the Churchill Downs winner’s circle on Could 4.

Patrick’s Superfecta: 1. Fierceness; 2. Otello; 3. Hades; 4. Home Product